TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof Tundra Esports, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,950 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team47c17,146$8,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,020.322,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed BetBoom Team36c9,429$3,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,997.1410741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed BetBoom Team54c8,867$4,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,092.257143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Tundra Esports62c7,750$4,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8052751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed BetBoom Team47c7,568$3,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,039.5366662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed BetBoom Team34c5,966$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,966.0454556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Tundra Esports41c5,425$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.3739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed BetBoom Team52c4,390$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.635758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed BetBoom Team47c4,366$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.8696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Tundra Esports28c4,177$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.072828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Tundra Esports69c3,744$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6008060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BetBoom Team31c3,572$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480.0789440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Tundra Esports68c3,210$2,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.737357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Tundra Esports65c3,100$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01511647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c8c…d09dbacked Tundra Esports48c2,920$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Tundra Esports56c2,491$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.6946664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Tundra Esports60c2,331$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40015946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Tundra Esports39c2,125$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.4513455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team51c1,755$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.92,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Tundra Esports54c1,655$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90012948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Tundra Esports62c1,500$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.5479959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Tundra Esports68c1,479$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00021264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Tundra Esports70c1,429$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed BetBoom Team35c1,357$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.3228650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Tundra Esports70c1,261$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88214747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed BetBoom Team41c1,226$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.479959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed Tundra Esports59c1,201$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.695446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Tundra Esports14c1,200$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17065625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed BetBoom Team60c1,194$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.0662650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports59c1,156$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.0955157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Tundra Esports56c1,045$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5808461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb0…8ababacked BetBoom Team36c1,021$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.893638.9%14 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked BetBoom Team71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29038049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Tundra Esports67c999.99$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.169557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BetBoom Team54c939.46$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.732,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Tundra Esports68c920.8$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.144358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked BetBoom Team57c882.75$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.7533845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e8a…42a0backed BetBoom Team54c872.63$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.411258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked BetBoom Team65c847.63$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.4322954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed BetBoom Team50c794.68$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.6920350.7%103 W · 100 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked BetBoom Team42c714.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.2914538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Tundra Esports45c646.96$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28817353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Tundra Esports66c645.28$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.1988166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a65…ffcdbacked BetBoom Team49c596.55$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.399051.1%46 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Tundra Esports25c559.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed BetBoom Team36c555.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.568655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed BetBoom Team73c551.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7210134.7%35 W · 66 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed BetBoom Team37c533.72$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.5736054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed BetBoom Team72c526.88$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.1719664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Tundra Esports58c515.72$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2991,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ae…c89abacked Tundra Esports60c501$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed BetBoom Team48c472.32$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5728549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc531…47e5backed Tundra Esports69c439.13$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Tundra Esports68c430.19$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.5355251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Tundra Esports70c428.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked Tundra Esports71c422.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Tundra Esports61c413.52$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.5287645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4588…d206backed Tundra Esports46c405.75$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.592171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Tundra Esports61c400.32$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.9636051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed BetBoom Team31c399.97$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.9817146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked BetBoom Team30c394.09$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.8685851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6bb…7d0fbacked Tundra Esports15c358.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed BetBoom Team63c352.01$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9661548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ff…a353backed Tundra Esports70c349.84$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.893043.3%13 W · 17 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-33.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Tundra Esports57c344.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0821851.8%113 W · 105 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Tundra Esports58c342.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BetBoom Team44c336.02$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.521,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked BetBoom Team31c322.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.8656542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed BetBoom Team38c320$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.459250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Tundra Esports75c318.28$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7123459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed BetBoom Team72c317.21$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3641655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports46c302.59$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.791,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed BetBoom Team31c300$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20727548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Tundra Esports65c295.94$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3655751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf828…4722backed BetBoom Team73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed BetBoom Team29c273.92$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4980742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c9…6b8bbacked Tundra Esports38c270.93$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5210950.5%55 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked BetBoom Team76c270.42$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.95549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b73…45d9backed BetBoom Team73c260.85$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-40.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa612…3397backed Tundra Esports64c251.52$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.84955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Tundra Esports69c250$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17323050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb9…cb6abacked Tundra Esports61c249.79$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked BetBoom Team54c239.08$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.3592056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99d1…ee7abacked Tundra Esports44c230$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.224345.3%110 W · 133 L+15.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed BetBoom Team68c222.73$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5316160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed BetBoom Team64c214$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.567546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3435…1913backed Tundra Esports67c213.03$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.731650%8 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Tundra Esports69c212.54$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6658152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Tundra Esports31c200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6125639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfffd…a1e5backed BetBoom Team44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1122030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Tundra Esports70c200$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14053757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Tundra Esports40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8018952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed Tundra Esports62c198.33$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9610741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Tundra Esports38c179.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.145052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed BetBoom Team40c176.28$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.974549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Tundra Esports65c170.77$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11117047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Tundra Esports59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc81f…16f1backed BetBoom Team56c159.41$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.143043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Tundra Esports45c155$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.352243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.