Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jacob Fearnley
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63c997045f8d32e4386e5f984ee4d15719cc45afebf43ac4c9db2da6571d7fd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Majchrzakof Majchrzak, Fearnley
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Majchrzak | 64c | 5,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Fearnley | 33c | 4,488$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.88 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fearnley | 31c | 3,729$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.92 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Majchrzak | 69c | 3,010$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.28 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Majchrzak | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Fearnley | 32c | 2,173$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.25 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Fearnley | 26c | 1,925$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.56 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fearnley | 32c | 1,871$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.71 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Majchrzak | 72c | 1,826$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.97 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fearnley | 36c | 1,304$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.41 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Fearnley | 26c | 1,250$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.91 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Fearnley | 29c | 994.11$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.98 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Majchrzak | 67c | 900$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 454 | 57.9%263 W · 191 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Fearnley | 33c | 867.21$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.58 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Majchrzak | 65c | 856.07$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.54 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Fearnley | 34c | 800$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fearnley | 24c | 774.04$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.67 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Fearnley | 33c | 747.27$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…0002backed Fearnley | 37c | 710$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.7 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Fearnley | 32c | 631.62$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.12 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Majchrzak | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Fearnley | 17c | 585.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Majchrzak | 68c | 535.54$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.37 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Majchrzak | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Majchrzak | 70c | 405$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.03 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…4fd9backed Majchrzak | 68c | 390.19$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Fearnley | 20c | 337.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Fearnley | 34c | 336.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8f…8ed0backed Fearnley | 30c | 331.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…60e2backed Fearnley | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…8e9dbacked Majchrzak | 67c | 293$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Fearnley | 11c | 271.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Majchrzak | 69c | 231.88$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48a…c6c4backed Fearnley | 16c | 201$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Fearnley | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Fearnley | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Fearnley | 23c | 192.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Majchrzak | 58c | 170.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +7.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Fearnley | 35c | 155.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Majchrzak | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Fearnley | 22c | 137.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee7…fdf6backed Fearnley | 21c | 132.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Majchrzak | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1f27backed Majchrzak | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Fearnley | 24c | 91.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…35efbacked Fearnley | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Fearnley | 36c | 86.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Fearnley | 29c | 85.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Majchrzak | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Fearnley | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Majchrzak | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Majchrzak | 66c | 74.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Fearnley | 36c | 68.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Fearnley | 39c | 61.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Fearnley | 27c | 61.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Majchrzak | 67c | 60.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Majchrzak | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…2994backed Majchrzak | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Majchrzak | 65c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Fearnley | 18c | 57.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Fearnley | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Fearnley | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Majchrzak | 78c | 44.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Fearnley | 36c | 44.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Fearnley | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0483…483bbacked Majchrzak | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87a…2ee0backed Fearnley | 36c | 39.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Majchrzak | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Majchrzak | 59c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…ea7bbacked Majchrzak | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…59efbacked Majchrzak | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 295 | 19.7%58 W · 237 L | -15.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…6215backed Fearnley | 42c | 25.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…8bc6backed Majchrzak | 58c | 23.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Majchrzak | 65c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Majchrzak | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 217 | 59.4%129 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jacob Fearnleythis page
- Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs FearnleyMajchrzak won
- Set Handicap: Majchrzak (-1.5) vs Fearnley (+1.5)Majchrzak won
- Set Handicap: Majchrzak (-2.5) vs Fearnley (+2.5)Fearnley won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.