TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Metizport (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Metizportof ex-RUBY, Metizport
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,773
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,773 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUBY61c6,307$3,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,822.15,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked ex-RUBY57c4,243$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411.3384454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ex-RUBY50c3,209$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.186,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Metizport38c2,999$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.3956732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Metizport43c2,788$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.7320842.8%89 W · 119 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed ex-RUBY58c2,444$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.3185358.3%497 W · 356 L+60.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf535…e984backed ex-RUBY68c1,956$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.713775.7%28 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Metizport50c1,565$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.6713238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Metizport48c1,484$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.6357641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Metizport44c1,439$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.7946343.2%200 W · 263 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Metizport39c1,276$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.622,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed ex-RUBY50c1,211$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.9743954.9%241 W · 198 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Metizport44c1,163$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.034,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Metizport41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59034626.9%93 W · 253 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked ex-RUBY39c920.06$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.3424538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda7b…8857backed Metizport22c729.12$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.724555.6%25 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b3c…0518backed ex-RUBY56c697.49$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.392619.2%5 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-45.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked ex-RUBY64c694.37$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.0566446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked ex-RUBY69c677.63$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.1478963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked ex-RUBY35c676.21$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.711,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Metizport41c589.33$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.1813234.8%46 W · 86 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Metizport42c565.33$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.751,64946.9%774 W · 875 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe66e…96e8backed ex-RUBY53c530.56$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.17842.3%33 W · 45 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9cb…bdcdbacked ex-RUBY56c523.93$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.031844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e8b…6d27backed Metizport46c523.91$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.981464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Metizport55c506.72$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.2178043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bf…2ea8backed ex-RUBY47c503.48$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.341764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x407d…574bbacked ex-RUBY74c486.52$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.597644.7%34 W · 42 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Metizport59c485.48$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.261,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Metizport65c465.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.171,17854.5%642 W · 536 L-36.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e85…3015backed Metizport43c449.21$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.058563.5%54 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf40f…8dcfbacked Metizport36c442.06$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.924959.2%29 W · 20 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+67.4%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Metizport49c434.96$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.1619540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUBY59c434.81$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.545,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed Metizport27c393.06$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.529736.1%35 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Metizport41c369.27$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.8715637.2%58 W · 98 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed ex-RUBY55c369.25$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.971,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Metizport41c363.05$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.239245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Metizport42c347.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.536747.8%32 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ex-RUBY61c335.95$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.675,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed ex-RUBY60c327.9$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1265254.3%354 W · 298 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed ex-RUBY32c315.87$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0865946.9%309 W · 350 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Metizport43c310$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.5228046.8%131 W · 149 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c6a…189bbacked ex-RUBY57c309.35$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.336460.9%39 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUBY29c300.16$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.377,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f3…5d8ebacked ex-RUBY78c295.69$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.63757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Metizport42c290.39$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.655,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…a5c9backed Metizport42c289.56$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9423146.3%107 W · 124 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed ex-RUBY35c279.66$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8878348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9b…3de2backed Metizport42c255.78$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.358842%37 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked ex-RUBY64c251.96$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4422534.2%77 W · 148 L-19.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-36.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf156…62b9backed ex-RUBY79c250.04$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.481040%4 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce66…59c4backed Metizport42c227$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.821637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Metizport44c221.95$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5384937.8%321 W · 528 L-20.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa20…fd0dbacked ex-RUBY76c219.7$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.971136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick65cpaid-49.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x98a5…d074backed ex-RUBY79c216.94$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.539645.8%44 W · 52 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed ex-RUBY56c216.39$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7342757.8%247 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed Metizport47c215.66$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2912538.4%48 W · 77 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked ex-RUBY54c213.75$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.751,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked ex-RUBY64c205.27$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8526037.3%97 W · 163 L-17.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd936…8318backed Metizport18c200$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1642425%6 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa640…3b9fbacked ex-RUBY19c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9444…328dbacked Metizport47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Metizport40c199.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.992,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked ex-RUBY57c199.37$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.631,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed Metizport24c199.25$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7430527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33f0…b7aebacked ex-RUBY78c190.97$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.154060%24 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked ex-RUBY64c190.27$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9338942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5206…0f4cbacked Metizport22c176$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2826635.7%95 W · 171 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b3e…5bc0backed ex-RUBY56c175.87$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4915358.2%89 W · 64 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked ex-RUBY56c172.37$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8845538.2%174 W · 281 L-29.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed ex-RUBY57c165.3$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2460838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb1…eab3backed ex-RUBY60c162.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.66259.7%37 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x355b…18ecbacked Metizport61c160.1$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.441984.2%16 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked ex-RUBY58c156.05$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.757625%19 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Metizport42c155.56$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.225354.7%29 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed ex-RUBY63c154.45$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.811061.8%68 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed ex-RUBY57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.532844.5%146 W · 182 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x384d…d538backed ex-RUBY46c148.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.910951.4%56 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked ex-RUBY43c148.45$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.172,60552.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-RUBY50c146$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.193,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Metizport40c145.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8738848.5%188 W · 200 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Metizport39c145.38$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9833237%123 W · 209 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed ex-RUBY28c143.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1983643.5%364 W · 472 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Metizport57c143.06$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1523172.3%167 W · 64 L+27.0wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked ex-RUBY71c138.39$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.262142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed ex-RUBY74c136$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.643345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93af…32abbacked Metizport29c135.03$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7810247.1%48 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee8…7406backed Metizport42c128.34$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9221741.5%90 W · 127 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Metizport49c127.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.674,09951%2,091 W · 2,008 L+74.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked Metizport68c126.93$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6233060.9%201 W · 129 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6722…865fbacked ex-RUBY60c122$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.227754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked ex-RUBY37c119.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6627015.2%41 W · 229 L-41.9wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-54.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x65cf…5cdebacked ex-RUBY44c118.8$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.273548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb129…4764backed Metizport37c115.49$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac5f…cd03backed Metizport59c115.08$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.426566.2%43 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeac5…cab7backed Metizport42c114.9$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed ex-RUBY31c113.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.262,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked ex-RUBY29c108.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3223537.9%89 W · 146 L-16.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e6f…3be7backed Metizport41c108.22$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.859435.1%33 W · 61 L-0.5wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.