TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,580 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Over46c3,654$1,677 inWon+$1,976.8411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Under54c3,653$1,973 inLost-$1,972.688353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under39c1,028$404 inLost-$403.649,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Over54c729.05$394 inWon+$335.3691252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over65c461.53$300 inWon+$161.532,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under47c350.08$166 inLost-$165.923,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over44c256$113 inWon+$143.368,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Under59c169.49$100 inLost-$10030242.4%128 W · 174 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over41c137.64$56 inWon+$81.2189053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under46c120$55 inLost-$55.28,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under36c105.94$38 inLost-$37.618,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Over46c78.48$36 inWon+$42.6451849.4%256 W · 262 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over47c70$33 inWon+$37.396,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under35c62$22 inLost-$21.71,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Under59c50.85$30 inLost-$301,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Over37c40.54$15 inWon+$25.5431343.5%136 W · 177 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over41c26.85$11 inWon+$15.843,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Under58c25.55$15 inLost-$14.8228258.5%165 W · 117 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Over42c25.55$11 inWon+$14.822,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Over48c25$12 inWon+$1347646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Over49c21.29$10 inWon+$10.8672655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.