MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eba68003d706a3859e88d19463dabb5c17d84e211c6b77355ee12a8c65c3bea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 709.92$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 703.75$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 27c | 292.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 203.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 73c | 160.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 24c | 109.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 27c | 106.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 84.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 27c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 51c | 55.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 72c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 73c | 44.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…3bfbbacked Under | 71c | 39.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…0abcbacked Under | 71c | 38.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Over | 68c | 35.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…567dbacked Over | 59c | 35.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…c0a0backed Under | 71c | 34.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077b…11d4backed Under | 71c | 33.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 32.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…2ad0backed Under | 71c | 31.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8eebbacked Under | 72c | 30.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34c…e5bebacked Under | 71c | 30.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…978cbacked Under | 71c | 29.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…b1c5backed Under | 71c | 28.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…dd72backed Under | 72c | 28.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…aee0backed Under | 71c | 27.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…25a6backed Under | 73c | 27.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 59cpaid | -60%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab0…7e17backed Under | 72c | 26.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…b587backed Under | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x392f…4d67backed Under | 71c | 25.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…8b1cbacked Under | 72c | 24.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…ba9cbacked Under | 72c | 24.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…f888backed Under | 71c | 23.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 72c | 23.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…cffdbacked Under | 71c | 21.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d52…8ab8backed Under | 74c | 20.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…fcf1backed Under | 72c | 18.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…7715backed Under | 72c | 17.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 73c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0a…bc66backed Under | 72c | 16.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…0b33backed Under | 72c | 14.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-7.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.