MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b6363a8368be607da56cf628e62697c8f3594a81cf8328772a1c58849cae8a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 2,487$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 69c | 1,093$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 953.74$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 595.26$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 35c | 256$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 32c | 254.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.39 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 61c | 120.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 110.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 34c | 107.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Over | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 55c | 77.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 39c | 71.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 60.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8d63backed Under | 66c | 49.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…567dbacked Over | 58c | 47.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290b…394abacked Under | 66c | 45.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8711…d2a7backed Under | 66c | 44.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5c…0380backed Under | 66c | 43.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…f6dcbacked Under | 66c | 42.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…d59bbacked Under | 66c | 41.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…c255backed Under | 66c | 41.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…0ab2backed Under | 66c | 40.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2655…77d2backed Under | 66c | 40.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…349ebacked Under | 66c | 40.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…7347backed Under | 66c | 39.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…e8b3backed Under | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 38.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…a79cbacked Under | 66c | 37.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…6756backed Under | 66c | 37.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2355…572dbacked Under | 66c | 37.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…b0c6backed Under | 66c | 36.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…ae3cbacked Under | 66c | 36.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…3b98backed Under | 66c | 35.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…f5d9backed Under | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 34c | 33.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…90e5backed Under | 66c | 33.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…bb84backed Under | 66c | 33.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…18b0backed Under | 66c | 33.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…ab10backed Under | 66c | 32.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 66cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…b036backed Under | 66c | 32.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…8e36backed Under | 66c | 32.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Over | 69c | 32.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…a0ecbacked Under | 66c | 32.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…a2ddbacked Under | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…6d30backed Under | 66c | 31.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…b95abacked Under | 66c | 31.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…ac26backed Under | 66c | 31.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ef…1778backed Under | 66c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa847…c5f4backed Under | 66c | 30.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…a57cbacked Under | 66c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…44e9backed Under | 66c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…d666backed Under | 66c | 30.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…95d7backed Under | 66c | 30.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe9…7c35backed Under | 66c | 30.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x291e…2421backed Under | 66c | 30.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…a9e7backed Under | 66c | 29.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 54c | 29.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 29.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…76b9backed Under | 66c | 29.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…093cbacked Under | 66c | 28.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f10…8fd3backed Under | 66c | 28.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 70c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 66c | 28.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…575abacked Under | 66c | 27.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…5ed5backed Under | 66c | 26.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…fc9cbacked Under | 66c | 26.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…db4dbacked Under | 66c | 26.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…b79fbacked Under | 66c | 23.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…8623backed Under | 66c | 21.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x440f…b5f5backed Under | 66c | 18.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-7.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.