MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3c9a281d2994640a0606dece58babc44cb5d80a601fc81d4dec195296df9a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 11,075$4,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,614.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 7,777$4,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,666.19 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.99 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 2,341$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.1 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 1,026$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 909.44$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 901.97$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.65 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 830.66$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 766.37$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.82 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 612.2$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.2 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65c9…cf56backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 412.76$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…dccabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 292.61$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 238$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 205.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 200.33$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 139.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 118$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 86.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 57.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…e71ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Minnesota Twins | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 35.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 33.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 33.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 32.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…7027backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-7.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.