NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64817b59f887f345d50d9fc76a0aa2f3a9dcdbdafa61f2f3a31f20c5316da8eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Ravens, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Ravens | 46c | 8,065$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,355.06 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Bengals | 54c | 7,181$3,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,878 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Ravens | 46c | 1,628$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.04 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Ravens | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 54c | 1,033$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.68 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals | 54c | 1,018$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.72 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bengals | 54c | 1,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Ravens | 45c | 680.24$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.13 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Bengals | 55c | 665$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.75 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Ravens | 46c | 478.26$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.26 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bengals | 54c | 363.85$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.95 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Ravens | 46c | 339$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.34 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Bengals | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bengals | 53c | 255.3$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.31 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Bengals | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Bengals | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Bengals | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Bengals | 56c | 110.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Ravens | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Bengals | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Bengals | 55c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…56aebacked Bengals | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Ravens | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Ravens | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Ravens | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ravens | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…9aa5backed Bengals | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Bengals | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ravens | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Ravens | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Ravens | 46c | 40.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Bengals | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…0cbebacked Ravens | 48c | 36.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Ravens | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Ravens | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bengals | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Ravens | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)this page
- Rashod Bateman: Receiving Yards O/U 18.5Under won
- Ravens vs. BengalsRavens won
- Ravens vs. Bengals: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Ravens vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Under won
- Ravens vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5Under won
- Ravens vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Ravens won
- Tee Higgins: Anytime TouchdownNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.