NFL · resolved market

Ravens vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6b39a72e7518d290a9546ffa8560abea16e88a23bc50f91430352e97eaea489

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $123,201
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $123,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,201 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd38b…5029backed Over	50c	43,073$21,536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,536.3	195	53.8%105 W · 90 L	+16.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Under	50c	39,864$20,056 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,807.81	176	47.7%84 W · 92 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	49c	22,048$10,737 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,310.22	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Over	51c	21,569$11,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,000	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Under	50c	13,500$6,715 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,784.99	173	48%83 W · 90 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,100	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	8,927$4,411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,516.65	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over	51c	8,888$4,533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,532.88	240	56.7%136 W · 104 L	+19.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	49c	5,436$2,664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,663.64	191	52.9%101 W · 90 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under	51c	3,111$1,587 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,524.39	343	49.3%169 W · 174 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over	51c	3,078$1,570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,570.3	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Over	49c	3,061$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-6.5wins	-0.23per pick	45cpaid	-50%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Over	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,530	74	64.9%48 W · 26 L	+9.8wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Over	52c	3,000$1,560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,560	111	54.1%60 W · 51 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	49c	3,000$1,470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,530	513	52.2%268 W · 245 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	49c	2,500$1,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,270	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Over	51c	2,353$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Over	52c	1,825$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.74	106	50.9%54 W · 52 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Over	51c	1,800$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$918	224	46.4%104 W · 120 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Under	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	155	55.5%86 W · 69 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Over	49c	701.92$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.92	187	44.9%84 W · 103 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	266	48.9%130 W · 136 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	52c	505$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.6	315	43.2%136 W · 179 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	196	38.8%76 W · 120 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	52c	495$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.4	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Over	50c	477.93$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.97	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+3.5wins	+0.27per pick	50cpaid	+58%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Over	51c	407.51$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.83	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	48c	323.81$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.68	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	116	40.5%47 W · 69 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Over	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x161c…3b03backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	50c	280$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Over	52c	250$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	684	46.1%315 W · 369 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d4e…18debacked Over	51c	250$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	117	52.1%61 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Over	51c	205$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.55	89	50.6%45 W · 44 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa427…fa9fbacked Under	51c	205$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.45	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5dc1…aa8bbacked Over	50c	205$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…a7d1backed Under	51c	202$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.98	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41dc…7ca9backed Over	50c	202$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x215b…3e6cbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	104	54.8%57 W · 47 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Over	51c	197.9$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.93	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a6d…3779backed Over	51c	195$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.45	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	6c	192.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x066a…642cbacked Over	50c	190$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e88…2198backed Under	51c	190$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.1	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6da…235ebacked Under	51c	180$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.2	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ba7…d27abacked Over	50c	180$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4aad…18f4backed Over	52c	153.85$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	-6.3wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over	51c	150$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over	51c	107.68$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.92	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7148…8fbfbacked Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…57f1backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	58	62.1%36 W · 22 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	96	51%49 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	242	43.4%105 W · 137 L	-7.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70c8…cf43backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed57…e0a0backed Over	51c	96$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.96	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	+8.3wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	49c	91$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.59	140	60.7%85 W · 55 L	+14.3wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over	49c	89$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.61	101	56.4%57 W · 44 L	+7.0wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99f6…f838backed Over	51c	84.45$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.07	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+6.2wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	63c	81.61$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.6	294	39.5%116 W · 178 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2af2…9aa5backed Over	52c	80.77$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Over	49c	80$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebd3…c5f4backed Over	51c	61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+9.7wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over	25c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3f0abacked Over	50c	43.07$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.54	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf995…307abacked Over	51c	42.16$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc14…1dd2backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	108	64.8%70 W · 38 L	+15.5wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa709…8d1dbacked Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa221…5b1fbacked Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	+6.1wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a29…c0b6backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	167	59.9%100 W · 67 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b1…0a46backed Over	51c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	+6.5wins	+0.13per pick	43cpaid	+59%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Over	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	103	59.2%61 W · 42 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	118	56.8%67 W · 51 L	+9.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Over	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x042e…f947backed Over	49c	27.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	50c	20.61$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.41	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdde7…f836backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	153	53.6%82 W · 71 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2643…28c2backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d7…d6d0backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	67cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Ravens vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5this page
Rashod Bateman: Receiving Yards O/U 18.5Under won
Ravens vs. BengalsRavens won
Ravens vs. Bengals: 1H MoneylineRavens won
Ravens vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Under won
Ravens vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Under won
Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Ravens won
Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Ravens won
Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Ravens won
Tee Higgins: Anytime TouchdownNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Ravens vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event