WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Liberty
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6485b83642631b95082a3b9c9b3510d21fb622f2224a3e1f10e72a8715f8c26d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Libertyof Mercury, Liberty
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 32c | 3,793$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.24 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…16aebacked Liberty | 68c | 3,772$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Mercury | 35c | 2,693$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.74 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Liberty | 68c | 2,338$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.19 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Liberty | 59c | 2,088$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.11 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Liberty | 68c | 1,977$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.82 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 31c | 1,132$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.96 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury | 33c | 1,100$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…784bbacked Liberty | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Liberty | 64c | 990.92$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.91 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Mercury | 31c | 920.04$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.45 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Liberty | 69c | 777$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.87 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Mercury | 31c | 667$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Liberty | 66c | 633.79$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.8 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…1e55backed Mercury | 41c | 507$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Mercury | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Mercury | 31c | 419.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Mercury | 38c | 379.04$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Liberty | 59c | 370.96$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.95 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mercury | 28c | 370.02$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Liberty | 36c | 350$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Mercury | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury | 30c | 328.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 31c | 327.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mercury | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Mercury | 47c | 251.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Mercury | 49c | 245.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mercury | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Liberty | 63c | 157.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Mercury | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mercury | 39c | 146.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Liberty | 69c | 141$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 394 | 50.5%199 W · 195 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Liberty | 70c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…3e7ebacked Liberty | 70c | 108.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Mercury | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Liberty | 72c | 86.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Liberty | 66c | 78.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 320 | 47.8%153 W · 167 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Mercury | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…9bdebacked Mercury | 31c | 68.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4542…cba2backed Mercury | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mercury | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Mercury | 52c | 53.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Mercury | 31c | 50.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Liberty | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…8a16backed Mercury | 36c | 47.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Mercury | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Mercury | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…1098backed Liberty | 75c | 24.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Liberty | 68c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.