TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Latvia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$618,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$230,429

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $618,173 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2936…7be9backed Yes0c84,021$84 inLost-$84.021618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ad…ba8abacked Yes0c80,350$100 inLost-$99.89714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0268…09f7backed Yes0c75,490$167 inLost-$167.21812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes0c58,044$116 inLost-$116.091020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c30,499$30 inLost-$30.560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes0c30,000$44 inLost-$44248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6be…43c9backed Yes0c28,999$30 inLost-$3070%0 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cea…fccbbacked Yes0c25,707$42 inLost-$4290%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c15,500$17 inLost-$1730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5608…b18dbacked Yes0c12,848$40 inLost-$39.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$111020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes0c10,000$11 inLost-$10.54235.7%15 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe030…dde8backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-76.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Yes0c9,333$20 inLost-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.