Olympics · resolved market
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe36efc31d78ce8ce59e227386b4e6833ea0e455f8dfe6b041352838762cfb307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $951,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $417,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $951,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Yes | 1c | 98,697$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…7be9backed Yes | 0c | 59,096$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 1c | 43,894$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Yes | 1c | 42,875$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 0c | 34,522$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…10c9backed Yes | 1c | 33,041$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 0c | 32,674$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked Yes | 1c | 29,699$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e8…4747backed Yes | 1c | 25,550$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…eb3cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Yes | 1c | 23,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Yes | 1c | 22,004$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 1c | 19,501$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 0c | 18,698$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 1c | 18,000$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked Yes | 0c | 17,896$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 0c | 15,932$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa051…54ebbacked Yes | 1c | 15,071$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0369…76c7backed Yes | 1c | 14,756$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…3e93backed Yes | 1c | 11,207$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…08babacked Yes | 1c | 10,589$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 1c | 9,870$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 9,702$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 8,940$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 8,734$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…fccbbacked Yes | 0c | 8,271$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4364…d6a7backed Yes | 0c | 8,142$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…fb98backed Yes | 1c | 7,800$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,406$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 0c | 7,230$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Yes | 1c | 6,905$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,224$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…409abacked Yes | 1c | 5,827$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 1c | 5,118$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed Yes | 1c | 5,104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294a…bbbabacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…a7fabacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,800$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 1c | 3,773$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…e6d8backed Yes | 0c | 3,663$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…1deebacked Yes | 1c | 3,167$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e5…d72dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 0c | 2,981$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,901$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0b…44fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,568$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…d936backed Yes | 1c | 2,386$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…9bf1backed Yes | 1c | 2,036$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,930$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…45e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…8c59backed Yes | 1c | 1,184$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 2c | 999.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Denmark win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Latvia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Slovakia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.