Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Norway (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64dc4e849e7d97cdc0cbb7b663865587a99bfac5ec8019567b7a3e3fe74822ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swedenof Norway, Sweden
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Sweden | 21c | 2,047$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.68 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sweden | 38c | 1,329$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.51 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Sweden | 65c | 996.73$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.67 | 847 | 38.8%329 W · 518 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Norway | 40c | 993.17$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.21 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Norway | 31c | 812$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.3 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sweden | 76c | 735.68$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Norway | 13c | 442.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…ed1ebacked Norway | 76c | 394.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Norway | 78c | 392.95$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.5 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Norway | 58c | 255.54$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.65 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Norway | 41c | 249.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed Norway | 38c | 221.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 264 | 59.5%157 W · 107 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Norway | 17c | 191.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Norway | 15c | 145.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 239 | 40.6%97 W · 142 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Norway | 9c | 141$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Sweden | 58c | 120.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Norway | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Sweden | 72c | 118.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Sweden | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 373 | 23.1%86 W · 287 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Norway | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Norway | 16c | 98.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Norway | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Norway | 80c | 80.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Sweden | 23c | 46.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Sweden | 22c | 45.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Norway | 77c | 29.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 333 | 45.3%151 W · 182 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Norway | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Sweden | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Norway | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Norway (-2.5)this page
- Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5Over won
- Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5Over won
- Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5Over won
- Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5Under won
- Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Norway (-1.5)Norway won
- Spread: Sweden (-1.5)Norway won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.