Spread: Norway (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f08e275c47900a2d37787a0c73c03be3a5dc2077f2811a9fb7f4a438c72e552

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Norwayof Norway, Sweden
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $36,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,609 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Norway	57c	5,530$3,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,404.05	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Norway	34c	4,437$1,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,917.35	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Sweden	65c	2,041$1,319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,319.36	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5044…f67fbacked Norway	32c	1,786$571 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,214.75	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Sweden	34c	1,345$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.49	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-10.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x502e…5442backed Sweden	52c	1,146$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	167	46.7%78 W · 89 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Norway	52c	1,000$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.07	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Sweden	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	427	10.3%44 W · 383 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed Sweden	66c	999.99$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4591…12d3backed Sweden	67c	849.02$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Sweden	68c	843$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.24	281	62.6%176 W · 105 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfcd…36dfbacked Sweden	43c	796.14$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.78	145	56.6%82 W · 63 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Norway	44c	759$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.41	389	60.7%236 W · 153 L	+24.3wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Sweden	67c	753.3$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.88	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed Norway	38c	720$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$446.4	80	58.8%47 W · 33 L	+7.2wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Norway	35c	670.9$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.56	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Sweden	66c	600$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Sweden	68c	600$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408	374	51.6%193 W · 181 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Norway	34c	588.24$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.24	894	43.4%388 W · 506 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Sweden	68c	508.86$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.09	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Sweden	58c	466.32$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.82	847	38.8%329 W · 518 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Sweden	66c	439$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.57	55	63.6%35 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c46…ae13backed Norway	31c	438.4$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.4	92	35.9%33 W · 59 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc162…40bbbacked Sweden	68c	430.68$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.63	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Sweden	70c	427.5$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.17	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Norway	53c	410.73$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.56	740	34.1%252 W · 488 L	-36.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Norway	72c	393.42$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.28	444	35.4%157 W · 287 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Sweden	55c	315.68$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.13	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Sweden	68c	280.28$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.83	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Sweden	47c	279$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.24	512	50.4%258 W · 254 L	+31.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7210…521fbacked Sweden	71c	277.46$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197	81	58%47 W · 34 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8136…772cbacked Sweden	66c	230.3$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Norway	42c	227.19$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.29	233	45.1%105 W · 128 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7b…eac6backed Norway	78c	216.67$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.67	174	59.8%104 W · 70 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cfd…3d84backed Sweden	7c	214.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	373	23.1%86 W · 287 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Sweden	68c	207$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.44	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcff1…f8debacked Norway	33c	195.74$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.74	91	31.9%29 W · 62 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb70…f009backed Sweden	20c	186.01$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sweden	42c	178.71$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.38	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4844…8ddabacked Norway	28c	175.86$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.86	80	35%28 W · 52 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Norway	42c	175.65$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.41	239	40.6%97 W · 142 L	-9.1wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Norway	23c	170.09$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.97	135	52.6%71 W · 64 L	+25.9wins	+0.19per pick	33cpaid	+129%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Sweden	67c	168$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.82	815	54.8%447 W · 368 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fca…1938backed Sweden	70c	142.86$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	98	49%48 W · 50 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Norway	32c	125$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85	257	27.2%70 W · 187 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Norway	29c	105.1$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.62	203	30.5%62 W · 141 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Sweden	66c	100$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.33	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Norway	33c	100$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Sweden	70c	96$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.18	1,688	54.4%918 W · 770 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Sweden	68c	90.91$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.82	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b1…e2e8backed Sweden	67c	79.72$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.41	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Sweden	68c	73.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb83b…dc66backed Sweden	68c	62.1$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	62	32.3%20 W · 42 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65f4…5222backed Norway	34c	58.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.82	268	35.4%95 W · 173 L	-8.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sweden	39c	54.47$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.31	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Sweden	74c	54.05$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	63	73%46 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	74cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Norway	59c	50.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.57	1,141	46.2%527 W · 614 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sweden	67c	49.51$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.92	831	53.3%443 W · 388 L	+15.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce5e…c0fabacked Norway	27c	45.98$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.51	210	46.7%98 W · 112 L	+12.0wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Sweden	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Norway	50c	36.15$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.09	329	59.6%196 W · 133 L	+21.3wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7243…e409backed Norway	60c	33.37$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.39	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Sweden	34c	31.85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	88	17%15 W · 73 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb3…9858backed Norway	32c	31.25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.25	47	70.2%33 W · 14 L	+5.4wins	+0.12per pick	59cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f0b…5720backed Norway	64c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	220	52.3%115 W · 105 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd87a…4e56backed Sweden	67c	29.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Sweden	72c	25.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	379	50.1%190 W · 189 L	-12.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3661…32d1backed Sweden	71c	25.9$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcadd…c7e6backed Sweden	69c	25.15$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Sweden	67c	23.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	418	57.9%242 W · 176 L	+14.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sweden	68c	23.55$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.01	935	42.2%395 W · 540 L	-27.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Sweden	58c	22.45$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Sweden	69c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	235	52.8%124 W · 111 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d44…9f3bbacked Sweden	68c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	77	64.9%50 W · 27 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Sweden	69c	19.6$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	397	46.3%184 W · 213 L	-28.9wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Sweden	68c	17.02$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.57	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+3.4wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a3…25e7backed Sweden	70c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.34per pick	59cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Sweden	68c	14.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Norway (-1.5)this page
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5Over won
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5Over won
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5Over won
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5Over won
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5Under won
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Norway (-2.5)Sweden won
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)Norway won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Norway (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event