Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Robert Wilkie for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x652eb04861e06bb1875187656fea617eae3f0f9b852a697a9ce667ad6bf60af6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32c7…31e0backed Yes | 50c | 2,051$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7062…dadfbacked No | 50c | 2,051$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…81babacked No | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…f2fbbacked No | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…6c29backed Yes | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…24fcbacked Yes | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 36c | 600$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 39c | 445.35$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.78 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 436.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 51c | 371.69$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…a76ebacked Yes | 10c | 277.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 57c | 238$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 62c | 238$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 216.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 36c | 140.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 33c | 138.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 106$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 26c | 85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed Yes | 17c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…dc57backed Yes | 35c | 55.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 37c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed No | 69c | 46.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Robert Wilkie for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?this page
- Will Trump nominate Matt Rosendale for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?No won
- Will Trump nominate Tulsi Gabbard for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?No won
- Will Trump nominate another candidate for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.