Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Tulsi Gabbard for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56bb360c035eb85474b5ade6ef251da5e98bd53e27cb05bff41e35ab39e4b85d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 37c | 2,778$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.46 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 1,741$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.39 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…f2fbbacked No | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…6c29backed Yes | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 60c | 1,438$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.39 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 67c | 999.98$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 57c | 592.6$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.56 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 58c | 554.97$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.09 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 69c | 499.98$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 59c | 455$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 51c | 415.21$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 41c | 406$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.52 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933e…84d0backed Yes | 42c | 398.5$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 6c | 365$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…7257backed Yes | 45c | 361.55$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…6a27backed Yes | 40c | 350$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.32 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 346.37$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.77 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 78c | 320.88$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…cb04backed Yes | 50c | 299$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 5c | 272.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 59c | 214.63$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 21c | 214$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Yes | 41c | 198.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 38c | 197$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 193.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…fb45backed Yes | 31c | 188$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Yes | 40c | 166.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 43c | 163.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 60c | 150$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed No | 45c | 149.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…e637backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…430cbacked Yes | 41c | 117.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf1…d523backed No | 70c | 111$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 38c | 107$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 31c | 103.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 44c | 83.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 43c | 83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…73b5backed No | 60c | 71.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…aa3ebacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…7342backed Yes | 28c | 57.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 34c | 53.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed No | 65c | 50.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…01c4backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…3b35backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 50c | 37.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…11babacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…241ebacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae98…3f7fbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…4816backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Tulsi Gabbard for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?this page
- Will Trump nominate Matt Rosendale for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert Wilkie for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?No won
- Will Trump nominate another candidate for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.