Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6538485dd3797f2caee56a6a633b8a69a6893f41ec98f57e824c91d62f596353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 524.81$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 8c | 285.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 18c | 239.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.05 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 30c | 207.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.58 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 175.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.47 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 79c | 167.66$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 165.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 25c | 151.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 147.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 27c | 147$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 137.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 12c | 126.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 79c | 126.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 121.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 121.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 21c | 119.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 24c | 110.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 65c | 104.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 104.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 103.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 23c | 101.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 72c | 98.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 20c | 98.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 96.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 88.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 16c | 82.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 76.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 70c | 71.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 55c | 71.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 65.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 45c | 64.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 79c | 63.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 34c | 62.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Yes | 19c | 55.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…ad10backed Yes | 27c | 54.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 67c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 69c | 41.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 61c | 38.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 31c | 36.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 78c | 32.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed Yes | 71c | 31.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 76c | 29.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 78c | 26.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 26.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 75c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 24.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 21.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 19.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 74c | 19.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 18.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 16.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 76c | 14.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.