TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x182a…f847backed No80c799.91$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3518762.6%117 W · 70 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes39c771.93$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.9527328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No52c277.66$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.3179040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c239.4$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.218,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c208.98$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.958,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c180.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.67,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0a13…72cebacked Yes38c158.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.054325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes11c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.162,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked No79c141.55$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0820445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No72c138.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3232872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes36c119.44$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3899961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes33c111.77$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5331…3672backed No67c108.18$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.982568%17 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes31c106.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3347935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8162…afc3backed No65c106.11$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.693971.8%28 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No60c102.5$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8824569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes31c100.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2824732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes31c95.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012849.2%63 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes60c95.37$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1623951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No66c90.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2297570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c86.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes42c86.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.152,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No67c82.66$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.665764.9%37 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No62c81.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.293,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes35c77.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.653,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed No56c75.87$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6724139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes38c75.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.519427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes38c74.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c72.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.776,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes31c70.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0128441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes33c69.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.984,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c65.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.815,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No66c65$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.113351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes30c63.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.414,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d0…d84bbacked Yes54c62.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No67c60.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.922,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…491bbacked Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c78…80a0backed Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.23324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No62c59.95$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c58.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes33c58.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1118814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No67c55.03$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4345253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes31c54.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8817524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes37c54.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3416937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No47c54.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.481,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d6…ad10backed Yes37c54.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c50.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.499,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.53652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.583,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No65c49.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.543663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d3b…2f9cbacked Yes53c49.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes38c46.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c39…463fbacked Yes51c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No65c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9334748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes37c40.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1248919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x789d…af8bbacked No54c40.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.349060%54 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.492,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No67c39.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No70c39.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6754547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No67c39.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9221268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes37c38.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.142,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No59c37.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1682268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No63c35.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.172,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No63c33.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked No60c32.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0330665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes46c32.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.892,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes47c31.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes37c31.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7823538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a78…f457backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-43.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes35c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.416935.5%60 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes69c28.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.820662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes39c28.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes41c27.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.439262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No68c25.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1575546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed No78c25.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6129748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.752,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No67c24.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No69c24.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.616,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No66c24.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2468867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4422550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7da5…0865backed No64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.444858.3%28 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No66c22.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6641460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No67c22.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.421,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No63c22.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.244567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7758358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x988e…d0d0backed No69c20.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2911369.9%79 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.82,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c1…a400backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.86163.9%39 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No69c18.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.791,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No75c18.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6271464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed No63c17.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5842148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No69c17.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.281,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No76c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.081,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82cc…d569backed No69c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0411173%81 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.