Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x776909e342556062dc02303e1a2121b13ab696fae86fe109b7d06f96f23a0265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 80c | 799.91$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.35 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 39c | 771.93$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.95 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 52c | 277.66$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 239.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 208.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 180.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 38c | 158.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 79c | 141.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 138.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 36c | 119.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 111.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 67c | 108.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 31c | 106.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 65c | 106.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 60c | 102.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 31c | 100.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 31c | 95.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 60c | 95.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 90.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 86.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 86.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 67c | 82.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 81.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 77.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 56c | 75.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 38c | 75.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 74.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 72.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 31c | 70.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 69.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 65.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 63.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d0…d84bbacked Yes | 54c | 62.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 60.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…491bbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 59.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 58.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 58.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 67c | 55.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 31c | 54.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 37c | 54.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 54.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…ad10backed Yes | 37c | 54.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 50.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3b…2f9cbacked Yes | 53c | 49.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 38c | 46.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…463fbacked Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 37c | 40.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 54c | 40.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 39.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 70c | 39.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 67c | 39.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 37c | 38.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 59c | 37.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 35.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 33.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 60c | 32.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 46c | 32.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 47c | 31.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 37c | 31.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a78…f457backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 69c | 28.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 41c | 27.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 68c | 25.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 78c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 24.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 22.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 75c | 18.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 63c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.