MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x658aac8f6f961fceefddcb997df6233052b6a997ce3bd2a7be00f0830ea86866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f52…46f7backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 1,176$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 812.72$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.76 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 755.11$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…bd08backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 430.86$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.86 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 307$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 299.63$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 227$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 176.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 164.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox | 71c | 146.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 108.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 108.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 86.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Chicago White Sox | 80c | 80.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 20c | 76.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 65.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 65.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 64.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 61.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 49.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 39.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 38.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago White Sox | 74c | 36.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 36.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 29.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 28.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 20.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.