Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x659c8acc66094336c076401ebf83eb1b45c671d2560d60b8973fea3ce799aafb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 31c | 651.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 40c | 354.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 253.44$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 155.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 151.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 40c | 149.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 80c | 125.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 38c | 125.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 108.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 57c | 87.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 83.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 61c | 82.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 71.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 71.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 61.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 58.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 52.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 46.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 60c | 45.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 58c | 44.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 58c | 44.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 74c | 44.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…40febacked Yes | 37c | 42.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 39.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 41c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 37c | 33.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 33.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 41c | 29.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 28.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 27.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 26.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 65c | 24.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 60c | 22.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 22.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 64c | 19.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 64c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 67c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 69c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.