Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70a3a63367d470ecf8a23e6bade60469afefd57922c720e57c8345e04769b11a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 61c | 1,080$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.12 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 34c | 847.19$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.19 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 675.46$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.53 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 493.56$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 383.54$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 358.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 67c | 277.51$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 275.88$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 263.74$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 38c | 254.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 250$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 228.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 74c | 209.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.39 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 30c | 189.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 174.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 49c | 170.63$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 68c | 169.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x729d…e8a8backed Yes | 74c | 138.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 18c | 121.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 41c | 121.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 15c | 119.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.19 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 48c | 116.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 23c | 107.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b219backed Yes | 24c | 100.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 37c | 97.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 19c | 94.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 86.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 31c | 85.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 74.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 66c | 73.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 35c | 71.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed Yes | 80c | 70.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 26c | 70.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 48c | 65.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…21fdbacked No | 72c | 62.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 62.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 46c | 60.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 30c | 57.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…a520backed Yes | 33c | 49.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 28c | 49.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 35c | 47.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 47.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 45.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 45.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 31c | 44.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…99f0backed Yes | 29c | 40.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 39.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…98b8backed Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…e187backed No | 44c | 33.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 54c | 24.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 45c | 23.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 23.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 21.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 17.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 69c | 16.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 66c | 15.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 14.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.