Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebda841a1901265bed4110d1fbe84610ead7cc7e076b8076f4876348128dde3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,401$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed Yes | 53c | 634.77$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 63c | 506.48$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.27 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 45c | 486.34$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 426.79$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 383.54$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 36c | 363.03$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.38 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 304.82$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 301.59$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 265.76$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 222.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 211.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 191.91$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 170.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 45c | 160.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 54c | 157.03$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 152.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 137.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 121.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 108.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 47c | 103.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 45c | 102.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 98.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 58c | 97.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 15c | 87.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 62c | 83.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 62c | 78.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 77c | 76.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 74.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 70.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 36c | 70.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 66.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 66.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 66.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 65.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 60c | 64.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 63c | 63.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 62.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked No | 64c | 60.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 61c | 59.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 70c | 57.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 56.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 39c | 50.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 43c | 45.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 38c | 42.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 41.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 65c | 40.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 38.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 38.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 30c | 36.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 33.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 50c | 32.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 30.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 74c | 26.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x729d…e8a8backed Yes | 53c | 26.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 24.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 47c | 22.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…14afbacked No | 67c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.