WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ac2fae5a7c77c09c0bd2f23a9a6aef459908d3a544da5ab4dca3da248c3eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Lynxof PortlandFire, Minnesota Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked PortlandFire | 1c | 39,703$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.65 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed PortlandFire | 15c | 14,794$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,171.49 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…d9edbacked PortlandFire | 4c | 14,200$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.99 | 93 | 18.3%17 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…84e6backed PortlandFire | 11c | 6,786$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed PortlandFire | 13c | 4,250$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.5 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed PortlandFire | 14c | 2,153$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.87 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed PortlandFire | 14c | 2,125$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.5 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed PortlandFire | 13c | 2,022$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.87 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed PortlandFire | 4c | 1,975$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed PortlandFire | 2c | 1,674$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 1,339$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.77 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 1c | 1,189$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…4057backed PortlandFire | 14c | 1,003$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.19 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…9486backed PortlandFire | 10c | 990$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed PortlandFire | 9c | 601.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked PortlandFire | 14c | 525$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed PortlandFire | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked PortlandFire | 14c | 401.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed PortlandFire | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…addbbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 355.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…ffcdbacked PortlandFire | 13c | 354.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked PortlandFire | 13c | 284.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed PortlandFire | 12c | 275.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 240.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707a…8d21backed PortlandFire | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e8…0039backed PortlandFire | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed PortlandFire | 9c | 207.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…215fbacked PortlandFire | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf990…88bcbacked PortlandFire | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed PortlandFire | 14c | 197$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4037…143bbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 186.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked PortlandFire | 13c | 184.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…26eebacked PortlandFire | 10c | 153$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefb…5b50backed PortlandFire | 13c | 145.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed PortlandFire | 21c | 134.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…44b1backed PortlandFire | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…1e9abacked PortlandFire | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked PortlandFire | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed PortlandFire | 14c | 105.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…4d9fbacked PortlandFire | 14c | 93.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked PortlandFire | 13c | 89.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Minnesota Lynx | 71c | 68.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…9433backed PortlandFire | 16c | 63.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynxthis page
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 173.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 174.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 175.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-11.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.