WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c441db2835f18dc4520dadce1798b26b66a34cb774228a6a2864dfc01327bab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 46c | 1,751$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.45 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 1,743$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.54 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,514$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.6 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 875.13$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.11 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 849.78$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.4 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b0…cfa1backed Over | 54c | 800$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 39c | 663.08$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Over | 52c | 605.55$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.66 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 596.85$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.9 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 53c | 523$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.81 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 55c | 521.03$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.71 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 47c | 514.1$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.35 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 464.07$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.36 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 51c | 392.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 51c | 367.41$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.77 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 49c | 356.5$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Under | 50c | 304$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 51c | 265.36$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.86 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 52c | 262.12$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 51c | 260$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…d6cbbacked Over | 57c | 206.32$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 56c | 177.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 47c | 134.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 57c | 122.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 55c | 108$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 44c | 106$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 46c | 91.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Over | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 48c | 58.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Over | 52c | 57.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 64c | 42.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 59c | 26.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…4cc2backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 51c | 22.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 63c | 21.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5this page
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 173.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 174.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 175.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-11.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.