WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35fd452e9479a6f9804e1da406fd652d8e218d64c62a3eae0d329b5e3dd59ab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Minnesota Lynx, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 5,314$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470.79 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed PortlandFire | 52c | 4,568$2,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.96 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 3,000$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.73 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed PortlandFire | 55c | 1,820$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.96 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 1,770$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.21 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed PortlandFire | 47c | 689.99$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.7 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 458.21$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.93 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed PortlandFire | 41c | 204.58$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 182.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed PortlandFire | 54c | 180.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 175$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked PortlandFire | 53c | 121.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed PortlandFire | 48c | 108.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 74.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Lynx | 38c | 66.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 60.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed PortlandFire | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked PortlandFire | 56c | 53.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed PortlandFire | 55c | 42.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked PortlandFire | 47c | 42.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed PortlandFire | 55c | 40.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed PortlandFire | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 176 | 56.8%100 W · 76 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 35.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8e…13febacked PortlandFire | 48c | 35.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Minnesota Lynx | 38c | 29.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 22.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)this page
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 173.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 174.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 175.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-11.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.