WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1c5f3684b6344f16001169c71235ddcbcdccac1b084796fc4521830add7341
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Minnesota Lynx, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed PortlandFire | 52c | 3,649$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.67 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 2,541$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.67 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed PortlandFire | 46c | 1,577$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.22 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 1,470$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.5 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 1,154$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.77 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Lynx | 49c | 572.07$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.17 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed PortlandFire | 23c | 399.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.98 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 290$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed PortlandFire | 58c | 286.61$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 286.41$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked PortlandFire | 46c | 244$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed PortlandFire | 54c | 221.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Minnesota Lynx | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 149.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 138.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Minnesota Lynx | 58c | 128.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Minnesota Lynx | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed PortlandFire | 53c | 66.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed PortlandFire | 48c | 40.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed PortlandFire | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed PortlandFire | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Minnesota Lynx | 56c | 38.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed PortlandFire | 59c | 28.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed PortlandFire | 43c | 23.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Minnesota Lynx | 73c | 16.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-11.5)this page
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 173.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 174.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 175.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.