WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd57ef96331c93b0420537c96a039da2bb5a1b005044809ef1a9af1110697f490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 60c | 1,004$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.49 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 899.63$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.5 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 868.09$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.46 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 822.24$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.19 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 57c | 685.04$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.8 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 68c | 401.98$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 37c | 316.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 289.38$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 47c | 287.52$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 39c | 256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 54c | 209.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e92fbacked Under | 43c | 174.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770f…ac44backed Under | 22c | 123.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 42c | 92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…8f52backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…eebfbacked Under | 22c | 64.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed Over | 79c | 62.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…2365backed Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 40c | 57.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 54.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 43c | 34.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 33c | 34.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 51c | 33.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Under | 47c | 31.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Under | 47c | 31.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked Over | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 46c | 28.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…3320backed Under | 51c | 27.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 57c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5this page
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 173.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 174.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 175.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-11.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.