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WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
PortlandFireof Minnesota Lynx, PortlandFire
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,314 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Lynx48c5,570$2,699 inLost-$2,699.261,82051.7%941 W · 879 L+54.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked PortlandFire53c4,924$2,613 inWon+$2,311.1210737.4%40 W · 67 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed PortlandFire54c1,861$1,000 inWon+$860.562548%12 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed PortlandFire47c1,755$827 inWon+$928.2780948.6%393 W · 416 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Lynx46c1,326$612 inLost-$612.4442051.2%215 W · 205 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked Minnesota Lynx48c1,040$500 inLost-$5009047.8%43 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked PortlandFire52c957.46$497 inWon+$460.3437251.1%190 W · 182 L+16.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Lynx47c768$361 inLost-$360.9695448.1%459 W · 495 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Lynx47c750$353 inLost-$352.588548.2%427 W · 458 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Minnesota Lynx46c652.16$300 inLost-$299.9920447.1%96 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx47c624.33$291 inLost-$290.711,63550.2%820 W · 815 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71bc…7fe4backed PortlandFire54c556.76$300 inWon+$256.7614948.3%72 W · 77 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Minnesota Lynx48c500$240 inLost-$24033050%165 W · 165 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked PortlandFire58c407.37$235 inWon+$172.714955.7%83 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed PortlandFire61c304.89$185 inWon+$119.5712355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed PortlandFire51c280.97$143 inWon+$137.6814060%84 W · 56 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39b6…306dbacked PortlandFire52c248.96$130 inWon+$118.96988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick50cpaid+77%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7353…4b0dbacked Minnesota Lynx49c210$103 inLost-$102.95952.5%31 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Lynx47c201.93$96 inLost-$95.8522446%103 W · 121 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Minnesota Lynx16c200.84$31 inLost-$31.2512216.4%20 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed PortlandFire51c119.98$61 inWon+$58.798947.2%42 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Minnesota Lynx48c112.41$53 inLost-$53.4928447.9%136 W · 148 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Lynx46c100$46 inLost-$4640247.3%190 W · 212 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51da…a701backed PortlandFire53c100$53 inWon+$4716153.4%86 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked PortlandFire56c100$57 inWon+$43.525657%146 W · 110 L+16.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Minnesota Lynx58c100$58 inLost-$5838744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Minnesota Lynx49c90$44 inLost-$44.129358.7%172 W · 121 L+20.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Lynx47c86$40 inLost-$40.4278342.3%331 W · 452 L-23.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf7…c485backed PortlandFire48c83.33$40 inWon+$43.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Minnesota Lynx35c71.66$25 inLost-$24.9722440.2%90 W · 134 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked PortlandFire62c65$40 inWon+$24.6132250%161 W · 161 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Minnesota Lynx31c64.94$20 inLost-$20.1314039.3%55 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Minnesota Lynx47c63$30 inLost-$29.616544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e0f3backed PortlandFire52c60.09$31 inWon+$28.834369.8%30 W · 13 L+7.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+34.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Lynx40c55.08$22 inLost-$22.0352247.5%248 W · 274 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Lynx41c53.73$22 inLost-$22.0330447.4%144 W · 160 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Lynx47c50$23 inLost-$23.2534048.2%164 W · 176 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Minnesota Lynx47c47.94$23 inLost-$22.5342749.4%211 W · 216 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe733…f6c9backed Minnesota Lynx49c40.82$20 inLost-$201450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed PortlandFire60c38$23 inWon+$15.2634249.7%170 W · 172 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Minnesota Lynx40c25.63$10 inLost-$10.2513438.1%51 W · 83 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Minnesota Lynx60c25$15 inLost-$155156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x237f…e76ebacked Minnesota Lynx47c22.29$10 inLost-$10.488939.3%35 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked PortlandFire57c21.65$12 inWon+$9.3710838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.