Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6633c7610949e8c49301abc2ea4344bbb43fce2fe3d2a53debacb5e5d84b7f6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 2,922$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,004$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 5c | 620.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 30c | 369.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 357.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 6c | 326.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 300$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8600…db1ebacked No | 74c | 202.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 11c | 165.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 15c | 161.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…2e37backed No | 76c | 135.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 17c | 102.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 17c | 96.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 76.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 61.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 66c | 47.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 70c | 38.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…7f50backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 4?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 1?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 2?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 3?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 5?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 6?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.