Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1e32ad272213be058b49b5b25ea7eb859cf8b4dd2552b9b720bbe3b2ab688a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 5,071$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,340$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 39c | 978.52$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.05 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 47c | 929.98$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.3 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 770.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 58c | 685.47$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.02 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed No | 45c | 487.8$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.2 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c1…dab9backed Yes | 21c | 483.49$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 28c | 436.25$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.58 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…2e37backed No | 73c | 370.98$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 5c | 313.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 63c | 266.69$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.88 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 32c | 228.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8600…db1ebacked No | 69c | 191.23$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 48c | 171.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 28c | 140$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 28c | 133.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 127.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 25c | 118.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 41c | 110.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 73c | 105.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 101.91$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…7cd2backed No | 26c | 75.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…485abacked No | 69c | 62.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8c…420cbacked No | 67c | 59.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…0750backed Yes | 75c | 59.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb6…140fbacked No | 36c | 56.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed No | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 70c | 47.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 26c | 40.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 66c | 35.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 73c | 31.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0f…dac3backed No | 70c | 30.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 45c | 22.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da4…7c7abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 3?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 1?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 2?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 4?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 5?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 6?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.