NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6641cdd1f0f199cef1e30d4c5b948b8c2b53d6853744dacbc3b1602e5a421073
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 44c | 100,000$44,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,000 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 56c | 99,518$55,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,811.28 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 2,299$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.93 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 54c | 1,953$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 77c | 1,327$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.07 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 56c | 1,231$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.35 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 55c | 1,138$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.25 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 54c | 1,058$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.68 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.37 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 19c | 963.82$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.13 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 45c | 806.04$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.44 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 55c | 605.45$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.45 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 530.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ee…6efabacked Under | 55c | 490.91$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…306dbacked Over | 46c | 478.26$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 45c | 337.64$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.94 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 31c | 232.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 44c | 224.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e7…bf4dbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 193.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Over | 45c | 191.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…9266backed Under | 56c | 191.55$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 185$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Under | 58c | 163.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Under | 64c | 155.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Over | 17c | 120.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 20c | 118.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 56c | 116.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 71c | 108.26$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 55c | 99.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Over | 43c | 94.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d8…d53cbacked Under | 61c | 81.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 36c | 75.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 55c | 75.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 38c | 65.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 35c | 64.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 62.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 55c | 55.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…c0debacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…1b63backed Under | 28c | 37.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 46c | 35.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 72c | 32.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 53c | 32.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 46c | 31.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 46c | 26.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked Under | 54c | 26.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Over | 39c | 25.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Under | 75c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Kraken vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.