NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2012c64050fa87711bb195c04f4aa7565c7bab765a0de2e603bc109452968d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Over | 77c | 1,340$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Under | 80c | 1,256$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 24c | 890.93$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.28 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 30c | 795$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.38 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 71c | 793.91$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.61 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 493.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 54c | 409.76$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.76 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 30c | 341$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 25c | 310$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.05 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 44c | 268$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 22c | 227.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…39babacked Over | 45c | 223.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 21c | 154$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Under | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 75c | 117$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 35c | 108.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…58debacked Under | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 42c | 104$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 68c | 102$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 100.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 36c | 83.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 23c | 71.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 68c | 65.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 30c | 61.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…b380backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 25c | 44.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 31c | 36.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee18…fe34backed Over | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Under | 76c | 23.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 69c | 22.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Under | 77c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 56cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 79c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5this page
- Kraken vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.