Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x664acde13dd3a8fe28777db9e63f74794ec326212eb9cf493a4d712219749aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 878.58$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 635.91$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.43 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 20c | 631.6$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 21c | 605.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 38c | 349.17$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 47c | 329.43$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked Yes | 58c | 320$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 67c | 315.11$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.45 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 282.73$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 278.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 6c | 254.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 246$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 207.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 36c | 196.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 66c | 196.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 175.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 57c | 171.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 149.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 68c | 142.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 56c | 138.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 38c | 129$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 44c | 126.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 29c | 109.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 38c | 108.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 31c | 107.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 18c | 101.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 75c | 100.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 100.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 21c | 99.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 40c | 94.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 93.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 15c | 93.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 75c | 91.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 53c | 88.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 63c | 86.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 79c | 82.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…6881backed No | 70c | 81.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 27c | 76.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 43c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 71c | 70.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 46c | 68.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Yes | 72c | 66.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 68c | 65.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 62.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 58c | 62.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 40c | 62.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…3f4bbacked Yes | 56c | 59.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 50c | 55.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 54.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…2e9cbacked No | 35c | 54.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 55c | 50.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 75c | 49.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 48.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 42c | 46.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 66c | 45.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 65c | 45.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 44.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 27c | 38.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…4e2dbacked No | 79c | 37.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 37.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 42c | 36.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 66c | 35.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…7b7ebacked Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 38c | 34.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 41c | 32.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 44c | 31.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 43c | 30.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…4ef4backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 37c | 29.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 62c | 28.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 53c | 28.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 73c | 27.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 63c | 27.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 76c | 25.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 56c | 25.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 79c | 22.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 53c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed No | 54c | 22.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…20e0backed Yes | 56c | 21.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 79c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…4b09backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…7af3backed Yes | 65c | 19.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.