Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd93e00f58a04f2a06bae809b86ccef2615f08151e8b0ef45af1a50cc7cafefe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 80c | 1,544$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.64 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 952.7$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked Yes | 22c | 699.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 5c | 635.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 6c | 452.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.17 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 79c | 413.63$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…6881backed Yes | 72c | 347.66$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 10c | 344.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.08 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 304.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 68c | 282.4$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 278.53$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 8c | 219.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.77 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 57c | 205.64$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 201.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 40c | 200.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 18c | 181.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 65c | 172.76$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 170.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 168.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 38c | 165.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e9…62a2backed Yes | 80c | 149.79$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 149.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 138.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 132$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 16c | 128.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 128.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 125.61$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 18c | 110.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 103.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf127…da86backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 93.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 88.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 57c | 85.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 84.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 62c | 82.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 23c | 82.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 81.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 40c | 80.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 26c | 76.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 51c | 74.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 42c | 71.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 57c | 71.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5479…4bfabacked Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +256%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 65.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 63.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7153…3b55backed Yes | 28c | 62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…d640backed Yes | 67c | 59.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4482…d2d1backed Yes | 28c | 57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 74c | 54.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 54.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…f975backed Yes | 76c | 52.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…e592backed Yes | 58c | 50.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 49.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 48.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 47.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 70c | 47.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e14…6909backed No | 72c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 61c | 44.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…4002backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d66…cba7backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…e193backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 41.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 57c | 40.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 64c | 40.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7201…e62bbacked Yes | 28c | 39.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 75c | 39.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 61c | 39.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…86babacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes | 78c | 38.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 51c | 37.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 44c | 36.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 40c | 34.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…59febacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 68c | 32.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…6d36backed Yes | 47c | 31.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 34c | 31.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabaf…b8dabacked Yes | 59c | 29.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 70c | 29.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 75c | 28.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 26.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 77c | 26.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 80c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 80c | 25.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 73c | 23.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 71c | 23.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb563…26bfbacked Yes | 56c | 21.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 75c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.