Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6712eb9e97c325b89ed2a23c868d89805ab8cd777465bdcb34e7b41984b5fd71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $393,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $326,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 2c | 24,260$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.24 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 3c | 20,070$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.46 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…1b7dbacked Yes | 5c | 19,913$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…07a4backed Yes | 3c | 16,278$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.6 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…fc44backed Yes | 3c | 13,756$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…0547backed Yes | 3c | 9,286$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1a…e89fbacked Yes | 4c | 9,187$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 7c | 7,511$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd82…c094backed Yes | 4c | 7,080$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 6,526$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…e9f6backed Yes | 7c | 6,400$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 2c | 6,369$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…056bbacked Yes | 8c | 6,364$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 3c | 5,915$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 3c | 5,400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.84 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9f…1ac9backed Yes | 5c | 5,145$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,825$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.47 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0744…b039backed Yes | 6c | 3,549$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 3c | 3,477$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…ec77backed Yes | 6c | 3,324$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes | 3c | 3,158$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba7…3ad3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…b9c3backed Yes | 3c | 2,886$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…4b36backed Yes | 5c | 2,766$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…9f83backed Yes | 2c | 2,606$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 6c | 2,565$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.71 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9121backed Yes | 3c | 2,458$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…a082backed Yes | 4c | 2,451$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…d597backed Yes | 4c | 2,439$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed Yes | 7c | 2,309$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,254$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…f251backed Yes | 7c | 2,161$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.29 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e93…63e3backed Yes | 6c | 2,160$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,027$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…9680backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,933$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,816$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,607$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…2925backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 4c | 1,481$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 1,444$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 3c | 1,428$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…88a7backed Yes | 7c | 1,428$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732a…60c9backed Yes | 7c | 1,414$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9c…b885backed Yes | 4c | 1,410$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f3…343ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,401$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,351$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 6c | 1,250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,195$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,168$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,163$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…627cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,148$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,143$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 4c | 1,133$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3027…fbebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,056$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Yes | 5c | 1,056$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…759ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,055$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…a585backed Yes | 11c | 1,051$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…4413backed Yes | 3c | 1,040$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786a…8ef9backed Yes | 6c | 1,037$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…45a3backed Yes | 3c | 1,003$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…5739backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…c4d6backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 4c | 999.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…b1cbbacked Yes | 5c | 937.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…7e8fbacked Yes | 3c | 932.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b0…e2c1backed Yes | 3c | 883.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 5c | 840.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 6c | 800$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 5c | 799.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 5c | 773$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 8c | 740.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 694.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 645.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3f…1819backed Yes | 4c | 640.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 5c | 638.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 3c | 621.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 599.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…2a3dbacked Yes | 4c | 571.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 6c | 555.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f0…8e2cbacked Yes | 6c | 517.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…cf14backed Yes | 5c | 509.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…d9f1backed Yes | 4c | 491.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7034…feb1backed Yes | 8c | 487.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…f346backed Yes | 2c | 478.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…2970backed Yes | 6c | 469.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…0b73backed Yes | 5c | 443.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…6c4dbacked Yes | 3c | 419.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…418fbacked Yes | 5c | 411.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…b263backed Yes | 7c | 399.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…602abacked Yes | 6c | 395.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 369.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 6c | 362.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…61a8backed Yes | 7c | 351.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.