TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,908
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,304

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,908 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes33c1,238$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.4717536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes35c734.73$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd351…b2d9backed Yes46c618.34$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.13240.6%13 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes36c600$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.091,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No66c537.96$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.8172222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes30c533.7$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.764,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c524$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.784,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed No73c389.33$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No73c336.45$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.91,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2572…80dbbacked Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9614446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No64c286.94$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.911,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes28c271$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8265749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c268.69$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.124,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No72c189.98$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9638138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c185.35$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes31c178.43$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5942948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c170$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.73,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes34c161.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4812629.4%37 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No65c149.03$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8779947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1826…c31ebacked Yes18c136.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes33c134.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.422,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c133.24$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.244,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes33c122.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5917536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ccefbacked Yes33c121.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes35c112.69$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4443238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe188…197bbacked Yes32c107.61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.448536.5%31 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes29c104.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4812941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes32c101.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5350860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No67c99.89$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4718449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes31c99.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.231,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes39c96.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7523241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaada…4a8fbacked No51c90.41$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed No53c83.02$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0210044%44 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x322c…8fe9backed No65c77.45$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.854870.8%34 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x694d…3ee2backed No58c71.67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.13467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes30c70.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5429948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c70.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.695,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes34c69.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.981,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked No73c68.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2130919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes39c64.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes23c63.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90dd…c435backed Yes23c63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No60c61.17$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.371,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No64c60.76$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.954,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No54c60.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.782,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes37c59.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes18c55.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.133,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x581e…aed3backed Yes34c55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.73844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No67c50.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7962275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1727552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.218555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.514,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No67c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.31,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa30f…4da6backed Yes25c43.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121132.2%68 W · 143 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.295,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No65c41.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1789951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No67c40.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.362,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.441752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.795,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.480962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2efd…d295backed Yes51c39.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205448.1%26 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcac8…f4eabacked No63c36.54$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes35c34.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1243540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe828…ae41backed Yes36c32.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.619027.8%25 W · 65 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-34.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes39c31.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.471,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a1a…79aebacked No69c30.31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x367f…ee28backed No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.963148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No53c27.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.237465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No67c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.814,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No64c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3629351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3427…2ff7backed Yes48c24.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.954247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes43c23.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No69c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0864167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No68c22.88$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.231,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No62c22.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.524,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf1…7cb7backed No65c21.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.679169.2%63 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f2e…e75ebacked No75c21.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.474271.4%30 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.358358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No66c20.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0928163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No65c20.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1727169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No59c20.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2521338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.647347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.83,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a77…f968backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.73,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf828…5ca4backed No64c18.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.622326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-43.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No68c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8440862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No68c16.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2833654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No65c16.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.692,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No68c16.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.231,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No64c15.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.72,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.