Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6733f3b5d08c95a17d539f34a58a4dfd36f877b7b0f9ce6589807038b258404e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 33c | 1,238$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.47 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 734.73$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 46c | 618.34$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.1 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 600$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 66c | 537.96$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.81 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 533.7$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 524$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed No | 73c | 389.33$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 73c | 336.45$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 286.94$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 28c | 271$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 268.69$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 72c | 189.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 185.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 31c | 178.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 170$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 161.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 149.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 18c | 136.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 134.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 133.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 33c | 122.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 33c | 121.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 35c | 112.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 32c | 107.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 29c | 104.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 32c | 101.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 67c | 99.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 99.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 39c | 96.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…4a8fbacked No | 51c | 90.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 53c | 83.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 65c | 77.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed No | 58c | 71.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 70.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 70.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 69.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 73c | 68.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 64.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 23c | 63.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…c435backed Yes | 23c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 61.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 60.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 54c | 60.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 37c | 59.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 55.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 67c | 50.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 25c | 43.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 65c | 41.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 40.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 51c | 39.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…f4eabacked No | 63c | 36.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 36c | 32.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 31.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1a…79aebacked No | 69c | 30.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 53c | 27.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 22.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 65c | 21.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked No | 75c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 20.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 59c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…f968backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed No | 64c | 18.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 68c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.