Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd83cd4f4400139a6d88f0934b76c0aa599efd6e927c42ffc923a3729388c9272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed No | 69c | 1,725$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.81 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 1,213$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 809.47$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.11 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed No | 66c | 712.37$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 64c | 698.59$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.71 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 42c | 670.54$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.54 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 16c | 625.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 512.66$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.61 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 510.43$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 414.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.06 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 74c | 405.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 392.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 391.41$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 340.41$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.21 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 332.51$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.13 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 309.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 36c | 287.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 275.91$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 30c | 265.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 29c | 254.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 25c | 216.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.41 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 216.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 203.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 72c | 167.52$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 162.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 46c | 146.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 42c | 146.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 142.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 36c | 139.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 134.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 47c | 128.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 128.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 106.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 105.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 104.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 37c | 102.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 37c | 102$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 63c | 100.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 35c | 92.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 92.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 90.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 82.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 14c | 82.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 29c | 82.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…6272backed Yes | 49c | 81.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 24c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 38c | 75.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 73.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 17c | 68.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 45c | 59.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 19c | 57.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 57c | 57.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…f968backed No | 69c | 55.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed No | 76c | 55.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 51c | 53.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 75c | 51.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 49.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 49.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 46c | 45.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 43c | 43.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 41.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 40.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 32c | 39.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 38.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 27c | 38.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 39c | 35.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 31c | 33.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…f4eabacked No | 70c | 32.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 37c | 32.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 31.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…c435backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 57c | 29.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 69c | 28.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 74c | 27.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1a…79aebacked No | 55c | 24.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 46c | 22.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 22.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 21.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 57c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 20.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 66c | 18.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 73c | 17.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.