CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs Team Falcons (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6736ae01ba49d5f72c31649f0457649c6d0c7b74feb8e105946fbe9eef6104d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbb…9a17backed Team Falcons | 78c | 4,783$3,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,730.59 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Spirit | 21c | 3,195$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.44 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Spirit | 61c | 2,500$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59c…4da7backed Team Falcons | 39c | 2,186$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.63 | 152 | 64.5%98 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Spirit | 61c | 1,338$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.7 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a856backed Spirit | 22c | 1,329$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.51 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Team Falcons | 79c | 1,110$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.88 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 1,091$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.37 | 760 | 58%441 W · 319 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Spirit | 22c | 885.78$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.75 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Spirit | 61c | 700$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 255 | 55.3%141 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Spirit | 20c | 652.92$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…7091backed Spirit | 22c | 618$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.04 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Spirit | 21c | 577.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.38 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Spirit | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…2dd4backed Spirit | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…b3a2backed Spirit | 29c | 499.98$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.99 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017e…be52backed Spirit | 19c | 309$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Spirit | 22c | 295$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 417 | 16.5%69 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…d0f1backed Team Falcons | 78c | 270$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Spirit | 61c | 258.46$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons | 78c | 250$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…860ebacked Spirit | 22c | 243.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit | 61c | 224.27$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c5…5878backed Team Falcons | 79c | 220$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.8 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…d4bfbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9649…ebd1backed Spirit | 55c | 140.56$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…3bbebacked Spirit | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 384 | 52.1%200 W · 184 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7201…b40ebacked Spirit | 22c | 132.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd5…46b9backed Spirit | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Falcons | 78c | 102.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…d288backed Team Falcons | 49c | 102.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…11f8backed Spirit | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons | 45c | 94.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…0b46backed Spirit | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Team Falcons | 38c | 82.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Team Falcons | 45c | 78.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 340 | 36.5%124 W · 216 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d0…fb8fbacked Spirit | 20c | 73.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe26c…f309backed Team Falcons | 72c | 68.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…7e39backed Team Falcons | 79c | 64.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Team Falcons | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Spirit | 28c | 47.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ca…61e4backed Spirit | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Team Falcons | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Team Falcons | 71c | 39.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 39.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bed…fd9cbacked Spirit | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 206 | 56.8%117 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…75c8backed Spirit | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed Spirit | 61c | 24.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked Spirit | 51c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0950…41e9backed Spirit | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs Team Falcons (+2.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana PlayoffsSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.