TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spiritof Spirit, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$661,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$736,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $661,063 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 423 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Spirit54c143,161$77,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,853.8742440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Team Falcons46c100,000$46,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,00014050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Spirit55c55,000$30,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,899.9876657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Spirit52c18,904$9,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,135.3146349.9%231 W · 232 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Team Falcons46c17,425$8,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,005.7441340.2%166 W · 247 L-2.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Team Falcons42c17,098$7,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,142.782,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Falcons46c14,888$6,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,848.4733343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Falcons41c14,003$5,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,748.254,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Spirit57c13,669$7,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,933.9519757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Team Falcons30c13,643$4,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,102.8632425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Team Falcons39c13,397$5,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,285.221,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Team Falcons47c12,925$6,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,071.483,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Spirit62c11,734$7,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,507.0583652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Spirit52c11,495$5,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,517.665,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdf7…a6c3backed Team Falcons19c11,205$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1002240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Team Falcons46c10,870$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020947.8%100 W · 109 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons42c10,552$4,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,431.93,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Falcons45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5009954.5%54 W · 45 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Team Falcons45c10,000$4,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,47075550.6%382 W · 373 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Spirit55c7,884$4,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,547.646464.1%41 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed Team Falcons11c7,678$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.4621135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Team Falcons11c6,849$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.1233452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x983c…ac7cbacked Spirit56c5,846$3,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,572.431952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Team Falcons18c5,641$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.3713357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Falcons35c5,000$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.5425655.5%142 W · 114 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce80…08edbacked Team Falcons49c4,808$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,356.1611947.1%56 W · 63 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Team Falcons39c4,800$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.1928657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked Team Falcons9c4,523$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.668138.3%31 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252f…8911backed Team Falcons14c4,201$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x823d…189dbacked Team Falcons48c4,150$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9921631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Spirit53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,88027658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Spirit53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.5833359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Spirit53c3,599$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.322,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Team Falcons46c3,500$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6107454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Spirit66c3,283$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1234971.4%35 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons47c3,072$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.621,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Spirit55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35021251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Team Falcons45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35081544.4%362 W · 453 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Team Falcons46c2,947$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.5714839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Team Falcons45c2,514$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.3917240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Spirit62c2,301$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.0346246.8%216 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc55d…9fd8backed Team Falcons4c2,278$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.588349.4%41 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc882…0662backed Team Falcons48c2,188$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.4813333.1%44 W · 89 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons43c2,116$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91587847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed Spirit52c2,107$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.320059%118 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Falcons38c2,016$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.1460540%242 W · 363 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Team Falcons39c2,000$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.7455343.2%239 W · 314 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0504…3799backed Team Falcons16c1,946$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.063946.2%18 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Spirit55c1,878$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.2175545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons34c1,832$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.116,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Spirit52c1,750$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84045455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8e…3734backed Spirit55c1,743$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.33683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+30.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons27c1,710$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.482,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Spirit67c1,519$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.371,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62a9…3bb6backed Spirit66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecee…a577backed Team Falcons46c1,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6908226.8%22 W · 60 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43bb…26dbbacked Team Falcons27c1,500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.992055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Spirit50c1,400$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.9994945.8%435 W · 514 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Falcons46c1,300$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59816447%77 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Spirit60c1,249$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.25,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fe…cfd7backed Team Falcons46c1,236$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.45444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons30c1,227$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.824,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Spirit57c1,216$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.0240558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons33c1,200$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.072,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Team Falcons24c1,150$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.51,28322%282 W · 1,001 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed Team Falcons35c1,135$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007157.7%41 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Team Falcons20c1,130$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.941716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed Team Falcons48c1,100$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.1817754.8%97 W · 80 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Team Falcons46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Team Falcons46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50076546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0c…1249backed Team Falcons22c1,069$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.618338.8%71 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Team Falcons23c1,050$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.9955845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Team Falcons48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,17854.5%642 W · 536 L-36.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Team Falcons46c1,028$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47340148.4%194 W · 207 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x284d…59f7backed Team Falcons47c1,017$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.991145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc056…e188backed Spirit53c1,001$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.478751.7%45 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed Team Falcons49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49024942.2%105 W · 144 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Team Falcons46c1,000$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46528738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed Team Falcons15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017460.3%105 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Spirit55c995$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.7255843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Spirit58c949.98$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.991,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…fe5dbacked Team Falcons46c947.89$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.034660.9%28 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ac…580abacked Team Falcons16c932.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Spirit54c926.63$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.2540349.1%198 W · 205 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde19…3a14backed Team Falcons40c896.05$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.4212552.8%66 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Spirit55c894.91$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.6935341.6%147 W · 206 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked Team Falcons47c888$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.3612950.4%65 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Team Falcons18c866.67$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15628443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd309…dc1bbacked Team Falcons16c855.5$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.882040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked Team Falcons3c839.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e3…22cbbacked Team Falcons48c785.62$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.13438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked Spirit62c784.92$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.4210056%56 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e30…52e3backed Team Falcons18c778.26$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Falcons4c738.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5457422.5%129 W · 445 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f9…3c97backed Team Falcons13c704.39$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.07966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Falcons25c688.4$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.552,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons44c675.4$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.722,60552.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Falcons33c671.22$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7615153.6%81 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed Spirit70c644.39$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.8413937.4%52 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa066…d240backed Team Falcons6c642.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404219%8 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+232.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.