Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x673d8d14978fcaf410212f7637c8b3f29efeeaff19733f5521e808503f9ce2fa

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,028

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,176 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed No	66c	4,050$2,663 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,386.89	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e3…29ebbacked No	66c	2,990$1,973 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,016.55	131	63.4%83 W · 48 L	+8.1wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes	35c	1,450$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.5	432	48.4%209 W · 223 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61f…c6a6backed No	66c	1,310$865 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.51	128	75.8%97 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1098…a2febacked Yes	36c	840.22$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a51…f305backed Yes	34c	599.03$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.67	188	27.7%52 W · 136 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed No	73c	529.59$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.99	192	52.1%100 W · 92 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Yes	34c	499.99$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	232	51.7%120 W · 112 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a9d…de77backed Yes	34c	470.59$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb29…947abacked Yes	20c	427.1$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.1	188	43.1%81 W · 107 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafac…8730backed Yes	27c	370.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	64c	317.22$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.25	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No	62c	302.63$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115	343	57.7%198 W · 145 L	+26.2wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebda…5208backed Yes	34c	294.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7881…0ab3backed Yes	34c	294.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	67	25.4%17 W · 50 L	-6.4wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Yes	34c	294.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	237	36.3%86 W · 151 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefee…5c77backed Yes	35c	285.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	60	35%21 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4cc…6135backed Yes	33c	264$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.12	164	28.7%47 W · 117 L	+9.9wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9067…8cf5backed Yes	38c	263.16$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce11…8b45backed No	70c	209.98$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.99	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No	67c	201.8$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.36	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071c…bab9backed Yes	33c	179.56$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	81	27.2%22 W · 59 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99c9…4c22backed Yes	35c	168.29$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.57	160	32.5%52 W · 108 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce74…e6ecbacked Yes	34c	154.28$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	280	55%154 W · 126 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb349…d14bbacked Yes	34c	150$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	276	37.7%104 W · 172 L	+15.3wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5822…8dbebacked Yes	34c	147.22$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f81…d38bbacked Yes	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed No	70c	143.04$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.04	667	45%300 W · 367 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes	30c	137.19$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.16	470	49.4%232 W · 238 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Yes	30c	130$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Yes	34c	129.41$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e0d…c3fbbacked Yes	27c	111.11$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	101	32.7%33 W · 68 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60b1…0754backed Yes	34c	105.88$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…72a8backed Yes	34c	102.94$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	242	56.6%137 W · 105 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked Yes	34c	99.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	272	42.3%115 W · 157 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes	28c	99.7$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.91	166	29.5%49 W · 117 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	71c	98.59$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.01	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed No	73c	96$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.19	379	71.2%270 W · 109 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x609a…8fb5backed Yes	35c	85.94$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e0…33fabacked Yes	35c	85.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	375	26.1%98 W · 277 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b8…3f4ebacked No	70c	82.6$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.78	61	62.3%38 W · 23 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x257d…6f86backed No	71c	79.99$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.2	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005a…9755backed Yes	34c	79.41$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d4…4064backed Yes	34c	73.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	113	38.1%43 W · 70 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3900…fb4ebacked Yes	34c	73.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	237	29.5%70 W · 167 L	-11.0wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a60…a744backed Yes	32c	69.14$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.04	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a7…c8b3backed Yes	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+4.7wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66bb…cd52backed Yes	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	331	23.6%78 W · 253 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…4817backed Yes	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	258	41.1%106 W · 152 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6926…152dbacked Yes	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	270	51.9%140 W · 130 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78c8…3ab0backed Yes	35c	57.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7805…ead7backed Yes	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	82	63.4%52 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xab46…37ffbacked Yes	27c	55.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x609e…623cbacked Yes	36c	55.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b10…ffd3backed Yes	36c	55.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	25c	53.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	55	20%11 W · 44 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9146…2813backed Yes	29c	52.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	173	36.4%63 W · 110 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a1f…3400backed No	71c	50.7$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	13	100%13 W · 0 L	+3.5wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98e1…5516backed Yes	36c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Yes	28c	49.61$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	333	45.3%151 W · 182 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ad…fe73backed Yes	36c	48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	80	23.8%19 W · 61 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Yes	34c	44.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Yes	34c	44.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cec…a0abbacked Yes	34c	42.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	160	42.5%68 W · 92 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No	68c	33.72$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.7	198	62.1%123 W · 75 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b43…467fbacked Yes	34c	30$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	116	37.1%43 W · 73 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed No	75c	29$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.25	315	53%167 W · 148 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb508…8b83backed No	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-7.5wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsthis page
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assistsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goalsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goalsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Emam Ashour: 1+ goalsNo won
Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Emam Ashour: 4+ shotsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsYes won
Enzo Fernández: 2+ goalsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Haissem Hassan: 1+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsNo won
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shotsYes won
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shotsNo won
Leandro Paredes: 1+ goalsNo won
Leandro Paredes: 2+ goalsNo won
Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsYes won
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes won
Lionel Messi: 2+ assistsNo won
Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsNo won
Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsNo won
Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assistsNo won
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goalsNo won
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goalsNo won
Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Mostafa Zico: 1+ goalsYes won
Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goalsNo won
Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goalsNo won
Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assistsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event