TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Aurora Gamingof Spirit, Aurora Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,169 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb726…4d2bbacked Aurora Gaming59c801.44$470 inWon+$331.448741.4%36 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b6d…27bbbacked Spirit43c641.99$276 inLost-$275.545052%26 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0cc…ce77backed Spirit38c500$190 inLost-$19011435.1%40 W · 74 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Aurora Gaming62c450.8$279 inWon+$171.389248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Aurora Gaming60c260.22$156 inWon+$104.096740.3%27 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked Aurora Gaming59c254.24$150 inWon+$104.2419548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7732…a330backed Aurora Gaming58c200$116 inWon+$841850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9943…67b7backed Aurora Gaming60c167.25$100 inWon+$67.253735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Aurora Gaming61c149.18$91 inWon+$58.1835745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Spirit41c93.51$38 inLost-$38.051,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e74…1823backed Spirit43c93.02$40 inLost-$406241.9%26 W · 36 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb922…1d3ebacked Aurora Gaming60c75$45 inWon+$305056%28 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Aurora Gaming59c57.2$34 inWon+$23.5313147.3%62 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…7752backed Aurora Gaming69c49.99$34 inWon+$15.72737%10 W · 17 L-5.9wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-47.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4e46…8c1cbacked Aurora Gaming61c44.6$27 inWon+$17.3923654.7%129 W · 107 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Aurora Gaming59c32.2$19 inWon+$13.288242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Spirit41c30$12 inLost-$12.360451%308 W · 296 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed Spirit42c25.55$11 inLost-$10.7323161.5%142 W · 89 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.