TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spiritof Spirit, Aurora Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,112 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdaef…54e9backed Spirit57c3,000$1,710 inWon+$1,289.973652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed Aurora Gaming43c1,917$824 inLost-$824.3124746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Aurora Gaming43c1,161$499 inLost-$499.225,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Spirit51c764.95$391 inWon+$373.581,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Aurora Gaming48c700$336 inLost-$33694645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x987e…8d7abacked Spirit53c565.2$300 inWon+$265.24955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Spirit57c558.68$316 inWon+$242.2589248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29db…19c3backed Spirit57c437.17$247 inWon+$189.7512041.7%50 W · 70 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4759…dc6ebacked Aurora Gaming48c415$199 inLost-$199.24870.8%34 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7732…a330backed Spirit52c400$208 inWon+$1921850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Spirit57c362.19$206 inWon+$155.7488242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd790…a24ebacked Aurora Gaming49c306.12$150 inLost-$1502944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x525f…6401backed Spirit51c254.9$130 inWon+$124.93850%19 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Aurora Gaming44c238.64$105 inLost-$10535745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb27b…5d6ebacked Aurora Gaming47c212.77$100 inLost-$1006758.2%39 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56f3…e5d3backed Aurora Gaming49c204.08$100 inLost-$1002642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe419…f6c4backed Aurora Gaming43c185.2$80 inLost-$79.645944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Spirit51c180.39$92 inWon+$88.3942057.6%242 W · 178 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Spirit51c178.36$91 inWon+$87.428549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Spirit52c130.72$69 inWon+$62.162,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9943…67b7backed Aurora Gaming43c116.28$50 inLost-$503735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ed3…01e3backed Spirit53c90$48 inWon+$42.37936.7%29 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe41c…afabbacked Spirit54c63.3$34 inWon+$29.1249651.2%254 W · 242 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1dc…8931backed Spirit53c51.26$27 inWon+$23.913860.5%23 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Aurora Gaming43c47.07$20 inLost-$20.2450051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3416…adaabacked Aurora Gaming50c46$23 inLost-$2328935.3%102 W · 187 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a9a…7540backed Aurora Gaming43c42.65$18 inLost-$18.3450%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb56…2bc6backed Aurora Gaming47c42.55$20 inLost-$201625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Aurora Gaming45c41.65$19 inLost-$18.5552645.1%237 W · 289 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bce…2379backed Spirit51c38$19 inWon+$18.622948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked Aurora Gaming43c34.67$15 inLost-$14.9132458%188 W · 136 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Spirit55c34.42$19 inWon+$15.4249947.5%237 W · 262 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Aurora Gaming44c22.73$10 inLost-$1070042.3%296 W · 404 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Spirit57c21.74$12 inWon+$9.3521755.8%121 W · 96 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.