TailMyPicks
Market

College Football · resolved market

Fresno State vs. Oregon State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fresno Stateof Fresno State, Oregon State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$316,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$316,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,448 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb786…b18dbacked Oregon State48c87,529$41,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,688.9130949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Fresno State53c79,013$41,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,210.5486243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Oregon State52c39,029$20,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,283.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Fresno State57c23,171$13,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,071.5923751.1%121 W · 116 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Fresno State48c22,636$10,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,761.0734250.3%172 W · 170 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Fresno State52c18,223$9,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,817.326838.2%26 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Oregon State41c17,574$7,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,228.8985947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Oregon State47c13,817$6,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,549.5768440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Oregon State49c13,481$6,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,601.710750.5%54 W · 53 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Fresno State46c11,424$5,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,168.6937749.6%187 W · 190 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Fresno State50c10,334$5,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,171.022850%14 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Oregon State54c9,879$5,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,334.667846.2%36 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Fresno State51c9,339$4,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,573.363850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Oregon State52c7,498$3,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,898.9681847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Fresno State61c5,702$3,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.6164841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Fresno State56c5,360$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,361.1126750.9%136 W · 131 L+21.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb470…aa7bbacked Oregon State6c5,351$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Fresno State48c4,768$2,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.1217048.2%82 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Fresno State56c3,521$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.0263243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Oregon State21c2,981$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.632835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x486e…c403backed Oregon State46c2,460$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.891050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Fresno State49c2,275$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.644360.5%26 W · 17 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Fresno State50c2,256$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.1640549.4%200 W · 205 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Fresno State56c1,883$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.5355350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Oregon State36c1,564$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9511022.7%25 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Oregon State32c1,500$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.2411844.1%52 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Oregon State2c1,399$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.42370.8%2 W · 235 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-98.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Oregon State50c1,361$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.325954.2%32 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Fresno State49c1,344$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.0449443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Oregon State57c1,329$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.3911855.9%66 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fresno State58c1,280$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.7462843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Fresno State66c1,256$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.925438.9%21 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Oregon State50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004562.2%28 W · 17 L+8.9wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+53.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Oregon State55c886.03$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.011,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Fresno State54c874.4$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.913759.5%22 W · 15 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+600.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oregon State55c825.68$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.1249253.5%263 W · 229 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fresno State56c638$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.3957144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Oregon State55c528$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.42842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Oregon State50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502568%17 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Oregon State54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27013531.9%43 W · 92 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd8…4bf1backed Oregon State35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17550%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3545…741dbacked Fresno State50c479.69$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.15850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Oregon State3c431$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.591360%0 W · 136 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Oregon State52c423.38$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda53…9209backed Fresno State49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.162343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Fresno State47c401.89$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21313452.2%70 W · 64 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Oregon State48c335.88$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2211436%41 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e1…f652backed Oregon State57c320.84$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Oregon State55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1657123.9%17 W · 54 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x396a…0fddbacked Oregon State34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Fresno State48c262$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2426147.9%125 W · 136 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Oregon State44c228.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.776233.9%21 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Fresno State73c216$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8430548.9%149 W · 156 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Fresno State47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10610242.2%43 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Fresno State48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2450358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Oregon State53c199.97$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Oregon State53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf458…ec6fbacked Oregon State40c170$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Oregon State28c152.56$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.325844.8%26 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0249…c622backed Oregon State53c150.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146a…36fabacked Fresno State69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec5…b23bbacked Oregon State21c139.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303928.2%11 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-51.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x230a…2704backed Oregon State51c137.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Oregon State39c120.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2416044.4%71 W · 89 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1466…23d9backed Fresno State78c117.22$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.22875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Fresno State48c115$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.840244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e62…1e28backed Fresno State46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Fresno State48c102.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2810753.3%57 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Oregon State53c100.95$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.54454.5%24 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Fresno State48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5247331.5%149 W · 324 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Oregon State49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.82445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c9…cf27backed Fresno State50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505358.5%31 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc271…aa77backed Oregon State54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x236b…c306backed Fresno State47c73.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Fresno State47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.118338.8%71 W · 112 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Oregon State51c68.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.745356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ac…4a3cbacked Oregon State51c66.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2272…2e9cbacked Oregon State50c63.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.568041.3%33 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Fresno State74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.612857%73 W · 55 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Oregon State46c54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.051540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Fresno State50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2518858%109 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed Fresno State61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c2…dccbbacked Oregon State55c47.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a66…5b12backed Fresno State47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.552653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Oregon State53c41.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.968149.4%40 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x602e…b258backed Fresno State59c41.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Oregon State55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+37.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeceb…19f2backed Fresno State58c39.41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8272…541dbacked Fresno State59c38.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.983158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3635…17c8backed Oregon State51c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.275265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Oregon State53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014836.5%54 W · 94 L-11.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Oregon State53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016050%80 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4b…94d4backed Oregon State54c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Oregon State58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Fresno State48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.65453.7%29 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Fresno State48c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5610340.8%42 W · 61 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd30…327dbacked Oregon State55c25.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2490…303dbacked Fresno State47c25.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.532951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Oregon State59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154055%22 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…924ebacked Fresno State47c23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.