CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67b26bd8a5c859b51b3b07a688585f9146c4f2da89c1bf961faa8d493b42659f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked Under | 45c | 500.92$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.24 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c63…3cbbbacked Over | 55c | 448.02$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.07 | 461 | 65.5%302 W · 159 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Under | 43c | 269.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f0…0c9fbacked Over | 54c | 73.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x869d…1625backed Under | 49c | 59.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec65…34d5backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d75…3f15backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…bdd3backed Over | 69c | 47.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…c3cfbacked Over | 53c | 38.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9f…ba0cbacked Over | 54c | 34.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Under | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Over | 51c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 48c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…aff6backed Over | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerFUT Esports won
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 3 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 4 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)FUT Esports won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)FUT Esports won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)Spirit won
- Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)FUT Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.