TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof FUT Esports, Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$598,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$677,275

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $598,713 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 377 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5901…63a2backed FUT Esports44c27,542$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,542.297041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spirit46c24,875$11,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,522.311,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked Spirit6c19,458$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.8222129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Spirit61c17,510$10,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,680.9321048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed FUT Esports39c12,821$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,820.7719055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Spirit33c12,484$4,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,094.9675245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc117…de2fbacked FUT Esports59c12,008$7,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,940.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3342…f908backed Spirit59c12,000$7,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,079.991942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3705…9677backed FUT Esports57c8,543$4,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,655.63033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2829…12a0backed Spirit62c8,241$5,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,109.22520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed Spirit41c8,194$3,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,366.110753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FUT Esports38c8,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,96064852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Spirit50c7,045$3,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,522.4135054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Spirit8c6,940$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.883,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Spirit2c6,485$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.022,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked FUT Esports36c6,257$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,007.3641040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed FUT Esports57c5,628$3,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.0740264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed FUT Esports37c5,334$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,360.3112348.8%60 W · 63 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FUT Esports62c5,192$3,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.811,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Spirit64c5,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20026952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4002…b012backed FUT Esports40c5,000$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,015.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce1…f3aabacked FUT Esports51c4,508$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.751947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa45f…4e8dbacked Spirit76c4,417$3,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,354.461118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.33per pick51cpaid-73.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Spirit44c4,130$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.5387047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a06…52c2backed Spirit73c4,030$2,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,941.9560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed Spirit58c3,780$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.398246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Spirit50c3,759$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.251,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Spirit40c3,285$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.5669445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6be…a0f3backed Spirit29c3,252$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.7310449%51 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Spirit56c3,213$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.441,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc97d…89d7backed Spirit63c3,180$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.42147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed FUT Esports37c3,177$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.24650%23 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Spirit63c3,175$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00029449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Spirit60c3,155$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.142,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked FUT Esports40c3,112$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.3127740.8%113 W · 164 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked FUT Esports38c3,100$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.5435847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb14…49b2backed FUT Esports40c3,070$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1570…1404backed Spirit62c3,025$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.692835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f67…a203backed Spirit69c2,945$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.981741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Spirit37c2,930$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.2216142.9%69 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked FUT Esports39c2,881$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.328741.4%36 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked Spirit43c2,778$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.813426.5%9 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed FUT Esports55c2,756$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.385240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Spirit73c2,740$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005048%24 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x568b…4727backed Spirit60c2,550$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5302864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed FUT Esports38c2,500$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.9955236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked FUT Esports50c2,386$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.2614147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked FUT Esports59c2,273$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.5323646.2%109 W · 127 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed FUT Esports41c2,268$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.8954732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Spirit61c2,195$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.6917759.9%106 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd794…248bbacked FUT Esports60c2,153$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.141163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed FUT Esports53c2,130$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.522,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd68…a90fbacked FUT Esports47c2,122$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.94887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick53cpaid+80.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked FUT Esports47c2,118$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.0424038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed Spirit60c2,100$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2607548%36 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed Spirit16c2,025$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.7410056%56 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked Spirit44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8808562.4%53 W · 32 L+14.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+33.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Spirit3c1,893$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.122,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdff…eab0backed Spirit1c1,877$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked FUT Esports34c1,775$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.993938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Spirit32c1,772$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.775,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6810…1c7dbacked Spirit62c1,601$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002969%20 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed Spirit6c1,600$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.074134.1%14 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Spirit41c1,600$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65650846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e53…0e2cbacked FUT Esports41c1,600$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed FUT Esports39c1,564$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.0837145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbaf…2a03backed FUT Esports48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78011341.6%47 W · 66 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc2…9876backed FUT Esports38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9301752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+53.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Spirit63c1,500$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.192934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-36.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Spirit62c1,500$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.9810454.8%57 W · 47 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Spirit61c1,458$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.0475245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3885…2cd8backed Spirit55c1,455$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80015150.3%76 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked FUT Esports39c1,407$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.6625846.1%119 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd25f…eab3backed Spirit68c1,400$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.994250%21 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked FUT Esports65c1,328$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.8839970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Spirit61c1,300$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.9745058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Spirit4c1,274$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.341,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x76e8…f211backed Spirit61c1,229$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.974463.6%28 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed FUT Esports41c1,220$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.8827438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99ef…ba25backed FUT Esports39c1,160$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+36.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Spirit2c1,079$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0913315.8%21 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed FUT Esports48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6716949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…d647backed Spirit64c1,039$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.814266.7%28 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Spirit47c1,001$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.7411831.4%37 W · 81 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed Spirit1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108925.8%23 W · 66 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x22f6…eb09backed Spirit14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407844.9%35 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed FUT Esports58c999.99$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.998361.4%51 W · 32 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Spirit43c999.96$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.9894645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Spirit59c993.11$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.9461034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…fbfdbacked FUT Esports52c964.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.454537.8%17 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Spirit64c952.07$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.3228843.1%124 W · 164 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Spirit57c935$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.4545646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Spirit42c912.26$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.1526624.4%65 W · 201 L-26.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad08…c58bbacked Spirit60c882$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.23053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f3…5402backed FUT Esports31c881.82$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.092650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56df…22c3backed Spirit58c864.63$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009045.6%41 W · 49 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Spirit40c843.02$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.2110036%36 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Spirit77c800$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61634542.3%146 W · 199 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Spirit5c751.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3824233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1bc…9d13backed Spirit57c719.8$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.741625%4 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-56.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.