TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spiritof FUT Esports, Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$536,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$574,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $536,912 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3170…c6a0backed FUT Esports30c47,398$14,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,098.091241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Spirit72c36,087$25,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,247.9919055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd63…050fbacked FUT Esports14c30,423$4,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,110.113050%15 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed FUT Esports29c30,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,699.975240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FUT Esports8c24,497$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.3969445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Spirit70c16,713$11,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,998.6846149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed FUT Esports28c16,000$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4804650%23 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Spirit71c15,732$11,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,562.1619660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Spirit70c13,032$9,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,909.620354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4049…aeaabacked FUT Esports31c12,978$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed FUT Esports28c12,221$3,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,444.110056%56 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked FUT Esports18c11,760$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,084.0122129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Spirit70c11,698$8,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,509.3916142.9%69 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Spirit70c10,517$7,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,128.5213548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3355…dd2fbacked FUT Esports1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Spirit70c9,864$6,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,921.4117062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FUT Esports30c8,941$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,645.6876058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb487…86d7backed Spirit72c8,336$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Spirit73c8,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2001,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed FUT Esports15c7,358$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.0410036%36 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked FUT Esports30c6,670$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00024038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Spirit77c6,517$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.2932348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b0…180dbacked FUT Esports21c6,146$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.73837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Spirit72c6,010$4,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65388746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Spirit73c6,000$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6501,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8c…4e7abacked Spirit71c5,800$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b7…8b0bbacked FUT Esports29c5,568$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.582634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed FUT Esports31c5,500$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70555236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8010…c05fbacked FUT Esports1c5,252$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed FUT Esports29c5,121$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.0961034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Spirit71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Spirit70c4,507$3,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.0429449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed FUT Esports21c4,423$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.1135054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed Spirit71c4,320$3,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.88246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Spirit75c4,221$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.4787047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f67…a203backed FUT Esports26c4,134$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0901741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf95e…53ffbacked FUT Esports26c3,936$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.5219849.5%98 W · 100 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3705…9677backed FUT Esports34c3,646$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.293033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed FUT Esports28c3,550$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99425248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf84d…8830backed Spirit69c3,500$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0856663.6%42 W · 24 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Spirit71c3,492$2,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.6829046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6810…1c7dbacked Spirit70c3,454$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.322969%20 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Spirit70c3,426$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.848350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked Spirit72c3,361$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.0813065.4%85 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x568b…4727backed Spirit68c3,240$2,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.82864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe39…92abbacked Spirit71c3,235$2,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed FUT Esports11c3,129$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.273327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked FUT Esports29c3,100$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88819443.3%84 W · 110 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Spirit75c3,071$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.2773658.2%428 W · 308 L-22.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed FUT Esports28c3,000$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.9937145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked FUT Esports7c2,887$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Spirit71c2,725$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.2411650%58 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce1…f3aabacked Spirit78c2,694$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.621947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5edc…fd27backed FUT Esports4c2,692$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb14…49b2backed FUT Esports13c2,681$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x901b…e325backed FUT Esports7c2,673$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Spirit72c2,502$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.561,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x489b…a6ecbacked FUT Esports30c2,300$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6903537.1%13 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Spirit69c2,268$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.0717250.6%87 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc2…9876backed FUT Esports26c2,200$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+53.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6be…a0f3backed FUT Esports19c2,192$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.4910449%51 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked FUT Esports13c2,113$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.6828037.9%106 W · 174 L-17.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6c2…e2f7backed Spirit71c2,113$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.68366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed FUT Esports4c2,005$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1711740.2%47 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked Spirit70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6005451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22f6…eb09backed Spirit72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5607844.9%35 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x898b…6c00backed Spirit79c1,980$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick61cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed FUT Esports30c1,762$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.755039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Spirit71c1,742$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.2945058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed FUT Esports30c1,733$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5207943%34 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed FUT Esports29c1,690$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.17234.7%25 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Spirit75c1,681$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.5560848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed FUT Esports4c1,675$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.026031.7%19 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Spirit78c1,590$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.9672353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b0…2aaebacked Spirit72c1,531$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.715451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b2…70f0backed FUT Esports12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18042831.3%134 W · 294 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed FUT Esports7c1,498$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9121143.1%91 W · 120 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed FUT Esports27c1,488$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.7657641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed FUT Esports30c1,483$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44524233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Spirit67c1,450$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.52,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4734…4ed5backed Spirit71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed FUT Esports12c1,366$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9716038.1%61 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba27…ac4abacked FUT Esports4c1,347$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed FUT Esports8c1,328$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10113342.1%56 W · 77 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FUT Esports12c1,303$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.743,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xceae…8e45backed FUT Esports17c1,303$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.232334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3d…6aa1backed FUT Esports28c1,300$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.497970.9%56 W · 23 L+11.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+20.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4adf…d623backed Spirit76c1,296$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.16173.8%45 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed FUT Esports8c1,278$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…8f14backed Spirit72c1,272$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked FUT Esports29c1,272$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.8825655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7224…1fefbacked Spirit73c1,254$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FUT Esports29c1,170$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.35,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed Spirit70c1,161$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.378925.8%23 W · 66 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc086…8128backed FUT Esports3c1,158$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2614748.3%71 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed FUT Esports28c1,112$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.3621854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf56d…c3d9backed FUT Esports20c1,095$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.344835.4%17 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked FUT Esports29c1,080$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.211546.1%53 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed FUT Esports29c1,060$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.433048.8%161 W · 169 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked FUT Esports29c1,038$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30118444%81 W · 103 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.