CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791e662e418940004f574787d11dbfa9c9f8dd1a6b9a069b3292594fe109e413

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: FUT Esportsof Spirit, FUT Esports
Resolved: Aug 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FUT Esports	75c	9,481$7,099 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,382.21	5,095	55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L	+119.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Spirit	25c	7,977$1,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,994.16	229	41.9%96 W · 133 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Spirit	32c	1,445$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.08	5,876	37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L	+71.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed FUT Esports	69c	1,436$991 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.29	273	53.1%145 W · 128 L	+13.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5acf…ead4backed Spirit	32c	1,400$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446	48	33.3%16 W · 32 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed FUT Esports	74c	1,371$1,012 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.94	2,030	53.7%1,091 W · 939 L	+6.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Spirit	31c	1,229$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.95	726	45.6%331 W · 395 L	-21.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked FUT Esports	68c	1,200$812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$387.98	168	42.9%72 W · 96 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Spirit	25c	1,199$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.76	338	44.4%150 W · 188 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf07b…def2backed Spirit	31c	1,027$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.04	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8698…8c8dbacked FUT Esports	68c	976$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.8	52	50%26 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a0…f447backed Spirit	31c	936.6$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.61	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd943…8676backed Spirit	27c	914.39$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.02	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+5.2wins	+0.21per pick	35cpaid	+58.6%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xeffb…4fb5backed FUT Esports	71c	845.3$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.3	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x95c2…421bbacked FUT Esports	72c	696.94$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.94	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed FUT Esports	76c	658.55$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.55	163	62%101 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Spirit	31c	656.96$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.06	93	60.2%56 W · 37 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed FUT Esports	73c	588.24$429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.82	610	55.9%341 W · 269 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed FUT Esports	69c	580$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.8	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7a…3de0backed FUT Esports	70c	533.26$373 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.98	68	47.1%32 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9674…1302backed Spirit	29c	525$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	85	48.2%41 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x173e…9ff4backed FUT Esports	71c	500$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145	111	37.8%42 W · 69 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Spirit	27c	500$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.89	403	49.1%198 W · 205 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FUT Esports	71c	407.13$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118	1,790	59.2%1,060 W · 730 L	+106.1wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe601…84ecbacked Spirit	30c	399.44$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.13	492	45.9%226 W · 266 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Spirit	26c	393.88$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.41	1,041	39.9%415 W · 626 L	+20.5wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x620b…2e9fbacked FUT Esports	69c	387.29$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.06	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Spirit	26c	363.68$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.56	562	39.5%222 W · 340 L	-21.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59e3…848abacked Spirit	29c	346.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	34cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1ec…9c6dbacked Spirit	29c	342.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Spirit	25c	339.76$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.99	338	44.4%150 W · 188 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spirit	24c	324.62$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.67	1,431	39%558 W · 873 L	-41.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-29%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed FUT Esports	71c	290.84$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.25	577	40.4%233 W · 344 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4de1…068abacked Spirit	31c	282.94$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.51	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Spirit	26c	277.01$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.98	279	54.1%151 W · 128 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed FUT Esports	73c	275.03$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.26	1,007	48.5%488 W · 519 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed FUT Esports	75c	266.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	324	61.4%199 W · 125 L	+23.2wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9f5…0688backed Spirit	29c	201$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.29	126	51.6%65 W · 61 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Spirit	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	153	37.3%57 W · 96 L	-11.8wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbaf…2a03backed FUT Esports	69c	190$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.9	116	43.1%50 W · 66 L	+7.2wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Spirit	28c	178.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	455	44.4%202 W · 253 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xece0…7dc9backed Spirit	26c	173.08$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe41c…afabbacked Spirit	31c	163.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	502	51%256 W · 246 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8818…f8acbacked FUT Esports	71c	144.58$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.33	172	61%105 W · 67 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked FUT Esports	71c	142.05$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.19	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed FUT Esports	71c	142.04$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.19	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+2.7wins	+0.24per pick	57cpaid	+61.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d87…df1dbacked FUT Esports	70c	128.99$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.7	176	45.5%80 W · 96 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…48e0backed Spirit	30c	117.33$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	113	41.6%47 W · 66 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b23…6b2bbacked Spirit	29c	110.01$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.9	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Spirit	28c	108.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.31	408	39.2%160 W · 248 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed FUT Esports	72c	107.66$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.88	700	60.1%421 W · 279 L	+70.2wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd468…f6febacked Spirit	31c	80.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	461	42.7%197 W · 264 L	+16.5wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed FUT Esports	69c	80$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.8	169	45%76 W · 93 L	+10.0wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x183b…b6e9backed FUT Esports	73c	67.02$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.19	320	54.4%174 W · 146 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1f…1e14backed FUT Esports	73c	67.02$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.19	194	53.6%104 W · 90 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b6…d6d4backed FUT Esports	75c	66.2$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.55	18	77.8%14 W · 4 L	+3.1wins	+0.17per pick	61cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdeb2…f33bbacked FUT Esports	75c	66.2$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.55	19	89.5%17 W · 2 L	+4.6wins	+0.24per pick	65cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfce8…2686backed FUT Esports	71c	63.38$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.38	243	63%153 W · 90 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed FUT Esports	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.15	2,474	24.7%611 W · 1,863 L	-316.9wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x70b4…6815backed FUT Esports	75c	60$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	240	65.4%157 W · 83 L	+8.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed FUT Esports	77c	58.57$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.57	222	54.5%121 W · 101 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed FUT Esports	62c	58.14$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.29	360	54.4%196 W · 164 L	+16.7wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd924…7bc2backed Spirit	28c	53.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	125	44%55 W · 70 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Spirit	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	347	42.9%149 W · 198 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed FUT Esports	70c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed FUT Esports	71c	49.99$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.66	137	51.8%71 W · 66 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11ea…1676backed Spirit	29c	48.6$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eda…57e0backed Spirit	32c	47.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52cd…85fbbacked Spirit	31c	38.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	369	42%155 W · 214 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58c…56e3backed FUT Esports	73c	38.54$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.41	339	69.9%237 W · 102 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	67cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Spirit	30c	38.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.43	2,365	45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L	-58.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed FUT Esports	71c	36.68$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.64	1,895	47.8%906 W · 989 L	-50.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fab…9a70backed FUT Esports	75c	33.33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.33	58	82.8%48 W · 10 L	+8.7wins	+0.15per pick	68cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8059…5addbacked FUT Esports	75c	32.92$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.23	92	60.9%56 W · 36 L	+11.1wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x497e…a18abacked FUT Esports	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	71	57.7%41 W · 30 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d2d…b69dbacked FUT Esports	74c	20.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.27	153	61.4%94 W · 59 L	+13.3wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5059…6d95backed FUT Esports	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	48	66.7%32 W · 16 L	+5.4wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6280…f8cbbacked FUT Esports	75c	19.7$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.01	20	60%12 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked FUT Esports	75c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	179	59.8%107 W · 72 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed FUT Esports	75c	15.29$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.77	76	60.5%46 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked FUT Esports	70c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	447	63.5%284 W · 163 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c7b…3d69backed FUT Esports	73c	13.99$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.78	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	76cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)this page
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsSpirit won
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerFUT Esports won
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 3 WinnerSpirit won
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 4 WinnerSpirit won
Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)FUT Esports won
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)FUT Esports won
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)Spirit won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event