Tennis · resolved market
ITF W75 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Women: Haruka Kaji vs Sakura Hosogi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67e10fbd9298d5038c67a254afc4911824e318b080d82c74e26e3f1ea63a9b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Haruka Kajiof Haruka Kaji, Sakura Hosogi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Haruka Kaji | 56c | 8,000$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,519.95 | 636 | 48%305 W · 331 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sakura Hosogi | 44c | 6,625$2,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894.72 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sakura Hosogi | 20c | 1,164$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.79 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Haruka Kaji | 79c | 1,085$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.88 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Sakura Hosogi | 59c | 600$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Haruka Kaji | 49c | 600$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Sakura Hosogi | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 580 | 21.9%127 W · 453 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Haruka Kaji | 62c | 450.63$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Haruka Kaji | 57c | 398.44$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.72 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…f379backed Haruka Kaji | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sakura Hosogi | 44c | 299.18$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Sakura Hosogi | 39c | 292$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sakura Hosogi | 10c | 261.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Sakura Hosogi | 39c | 255.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Sakura Hosogi | 72c | 218.58$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 479 | 56.6%271 W · 208 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Sakura Hosogi | 64c | 210$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 98 | 65.3%64 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Sakura Hosogi | 53c | 168.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Sakura Hosogi | 29c | 155.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Haruka Kaji | 63c | 138$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Haruka Kaji | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 209 | 39.7%83 W · 126 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Sakura Hosogi | 45c | 101.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Sakura Hosogi | 44c | 94.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Sakura Hosogi | 38c | 89.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Haruka Kaji | 59c | 74.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Haruka Kaji | 64c | 68.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 306 | 44.1%135 W · 171 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…e94abacked Sakura Hosogi | 38c | 67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sakura Hosogi | 18c | 59.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Sakura Hosogi | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 427 | 48.7%208 W · 219 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Sakura Hosogi | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Sakura Hosogi | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 341 | 48.1%164 W · 177 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Sakura Hosogi | 41c | 50.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Sakura Hosogi | 44c | 49.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 259 | 51.7%134 W · 125 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Haruka Kaji | 52c | 43.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…6415backed Haruka Kaji | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Sakura Hosogi | 34c | 39.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Sakura Hosogi | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 425 | 63.3%269 W · 156 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Haruka Kaji | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Haruka Kaji | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Sakura Hosogi | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Haruka Kaji | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Haruka Kaji | 67c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.