Champions League · resolved market
Will Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67fa4343036ce6f878e7dfd16c73f17c716433e003ca2d0a0d6f9e9d7f059986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 69c | 4,388$3,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.3 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 3,596$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.34 | 881 | 37.7%332 W · 549 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 801.03$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.31 | 257 | 29.6%76 W · 181 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 790.38$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.36 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 30c | 476.79$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.78 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 70c | 337.32$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 415 | 53%220 W · 195 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 325.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 285$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 278.93$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 594 | 41.8%248 W · 346 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Yes | 34c | 183.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Yes | 30c | 182.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 70c | 175$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 70c | 174.43$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 21c | 121.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 272 | 36.4%99 W · 173 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 28c | 108.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 704 | 35.8%252 W · 452 L | -27.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked No | 70c | 96.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 94.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 29c | 89.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 65c | 82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 75.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 433 | 33.5%145 W · 288 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked No | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 27c | 65.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 36c | 61.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed No | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 54cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 70c | 50.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 39c | 48.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Yes | 30c | 44.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 29c | 42.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…4200backed Yes | 30c | 36.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 79c | 29.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 65c | 28.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 63c | 24.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 65c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje end in a draw?this page
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-08-04?Yes won
- Will NK Celje win on 2026-08-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.