Champions League · resolved market
Will NK Celje win on 2026-08-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf808cda43607985bf76002afc38b88bfb0d44242e2587ad51432a9e4c140a97b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 70c | 9,049$6,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,320.43 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…a37fbacked No | 30c | 8,651$2,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,046.24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 63c | 3,963$2,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.6 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 35c | 3,800$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.5 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Yes | 60c | 3,594$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.77 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed No | 38c | 3,308$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 47c | 3,202$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.25 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 66c | 3,015$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.95 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 69c | 2,164$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.1 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +12.4wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 1,170$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.57 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 63c | 1,100$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.99 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 39c | 1,003$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.95 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 33c | 854.96$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.82 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 65c | 846.84$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.21 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 38c | 500.16$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.02 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 32c | 442.4$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.44 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…2c16backed No | 67c | 373.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 68c | 293.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 178 | 48.9%87 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 37c | 271$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 37c | 266.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 297 | 46.5%138 W · 159 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 35c | 226.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 192$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Yes | 66c | 171.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 36c | 162$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 39c | 156.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed No | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 60c | 120.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 45c | 112$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked No | 67c | 108.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 108.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 97.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed No | 54c | 96.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 54cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 62c | 94.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 41c | 93.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked No | 46c | 92.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 39c | 85.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…3bc8backed No | 47c | 83.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 46c | 82.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 37c | 80.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 63c | 79.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Yes | 37c | 77.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5a…4063backed Yes | 69c | 71.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 41c | 61.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd494…bfafbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 55c | 55.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…bb1ebacked Yes | 36c | 48.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 34c | 46.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 67c | 44.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 65c | 44.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 63c | 39.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 110 | 35.5%39 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 39c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked Yes | 67c | 37.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 45c | 36.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 36c | 35.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 45c | 33.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…7386backed Yes | 68c | 29.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 38c | 28.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…b543backed No | 61c | 28.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…d4c6backed Yes | 62c | 26.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…2602backed Yes | 39c | 26.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed No | 52c | 23.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…0783backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Yes | 68c | 21.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 63c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NK Celje win on 2026-08-04?this page
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje end in a draw?No won
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-08-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.